Study Topics ...
Study Topics ...
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Bullish Marubozu, Dragonfly Doji (full absorption + close at highs), Hammer (strong rejection of lows), Large Bullish Candle (trend continuation momentum), Bullish Spinning Top – lower wick (mild absorption), Medium Bullish Candle – upper wick (some rejection), Standard Doji (neutral; needs confirmation), Inverted Hammer (weak reversal; needs follow-through), Small Bullish Candle / Tiny Spinning Top (low conviction)
Bearish Marubozu, Gravestone Doji (full rejection + close at lows), Large Bearish Candle (trend continuation selling), Inverted Hammer in downtrend (failed bullish push), Bearish Spinning Top – upper wick (mild rejection), Medium Bearish Candle – lower wick (buyer absorption), Standard Doji (neutral; context-dependent), Hammer that fails (failed reversal → continuation), Small Bearish Candle / Tiny Spinning Top (low conviction)
Bullish Marubozu (trend continuation; strongest buyer dominance) — Next candle bullish ~80–88%
Dragonfly Doji (bottom reversals; absorption of sell liquidity) — Next candle bullish ~70–78%
Hammer (bottom of pullback; rejection of lows) — Next candle bullish ~65–75%
Large Bullish Candle (late pullback or breakout; momentum continuation) — Next candle bullish ~60–72%
Bullish Spinning Top – lower wick (mild rejection; weak reversal zone) — Next candle bullish ~52–58%
Medium Bullish Candle – upper wick (some rejection at highs) — Next candle bullish ~48–55%
Standard Doji (neutral; depends on location—support = bullish tilt) — Next candle bullish ~45–52%
Inverted Hammer (weak bottom reversal; needs confirmation) — Next candle bullish ~40–50%
Small Bullish Candle / Tiny Spinning Top (low conviction; consolidation) — Next candle bullish ~38–48%
Bearish Marubozu (trend continuation; strongest seller dominance) — Next candle bearish ~80–88%
Gravestone Doji (top reversals; rejection of highs) — Next candle bearish ~70–78%
Large Bearish Candle (late rally failure or breakdown; momentum continuation) — Next candle bearish ~60–72%
Inverted Hammer in downtrend (pullback failure; seller re-control) — Next candle bearish ~55–65%
Bearish Spinning Top – upper wick (mild rejection; weakening buyers) — Next candle bearish ~50–58%
Medium Bearish Candle – lower wick (some buyer absorption) — Next candle bearish ~48–55%
Standard Doji (neutral; at resistance = bearish tilt) — Next candle bearish ~45–52%
Hammer that fails (failed reversal → continuation) — Next candle bearish ~55–62%
Small Bearish Candle / Tiny Spinning Top (low conviction; consolidation) — Next candle bearish ~38–48%
Continuation candles (Marubozu, Large Bullish/Bearish) work best inside trends (ES/NQ/YM).
Reversal candles (Hammer, Dragonfly, Gravestone, Inverted Hammer) work best at liquidity sweeps, VWAP tests, prior day high/low, and swing extreme locations.
Spinning tops and dojis rely almost entirely on context (support/resistance), not the candle shape.
Small candles are noise unless paired with compression, support, or resistance.
✅ FUTURES LONG SETUP (Concise Version)
1. Trend: Price above EMA8/20, ideally above SMA50 and VWAP reclaim.
2. Pullback: 3+ consecutive lower highs/lows into support with controlled selling.
3. Location: Confluence with 20EMA, prior swing low, horizontal support, PDC, or VWAP.
4. Signal: Hammer, dragonfly doji, bullish engulfing, or absorption wick.
5. Entry: Buy above the signal bar’s high.
6. Stop: Below signal bar low or swing low.
7. Management: Take partial at 1R, trail using EMA8/20 or bar-by-bar, scale out into extension.
✅ FUTURES SHORT SETUP (Concise Version)
1. Trend: Price below EMA8/20, ideally below SMA50 and VWAP rejection.
2. Pullback: 3+ consecutive higher highs/lows into resistance with controlled buying.
3. Location: Confluence with 20EMA, prior swing high, horizontal resistance, PDC, or VWAP.
4. Signal: Inverted hammer, gravestone doji, bearish engulfing, or rejection wick.
5. Entry: Short below the signal bar’s low.
6. Stop: Above signal bar high or swing high.
7. Management: Take partial at 1R, trail via EMA8/20 or bar-by-bar, scale out into breakdown.
Daily Market Directional Bias Prompt
Date: [INSERT TODAY'S DATE]
ANALYSIS REQUEST
Analyze today's market setup and provide a clear directional bias (LONG NQ, SHORT NQ, LONG YM, SHORT YM, or NEUTRAL) with confidence level (1-10). Structure your analysis as follows:
REGIME & CONTEXT: First, identify the current macro regime (Growth/Goldilocks, Inflation, Precarious/Late Cycle, or Crisis) based on recent Fed policy stance, VIX levels, yield curve shape, and credit spreads. Then review overnight action: what happened in Asian/European markets, where are NQ/YM/ES futures trading relative to yesterday's close, and what are cross-asset signals showing (10Y yields, DXY dollar, gold, oil, Bitcoin)? Assess whether we're seeing risk-on or risk-off positioning across global markets.
CATALYSTS & POSITIONING: Identify today's key market-moving events including economic data releases (CPI, NFP, retail sales, etc.), major earnings reports (especially mega-cap tech), Fed speakers, and geopolitical headlines. Then evaluate current positioning and sentiment: check put/call ratios, institutional positioning from CME futures data, whether we're at technical extremes (overbought/oversold RSI), distance from key moving averages, and if the market is overcrowded in one direction. Consider yesterday's price action pattern (Trend Day Up/Down, Range Day, Reversal Day) and whether it suggests continuation or mean reversion today.
DIRECTIONAL SYNTHESIS: Based on the regime, overnight action, today's catalysts, and positioning checks, state your primary directional bias with 3 supporting factors and 2-3 key risk factors that could invalidate the thesis. Provide specific entry triggers (price levels or conditions), position sizing recommendation based on confidence, profit targets, and stop loss levels. Include guidance on whether the first 30 minutes will likely be a liquidity trap to fade or genuine momentum to follow.
EXECUTION RULES: Define exactly what price action or event would invalidate your bias and require exit or reversal. Specify best trading hours for this setup and times to avoid. Provide quick alternative scenarios: what's the plan if you're wrong, if the market goes nowhere, or if the move is much larger than expected?
REGIME PLAYBOOK REMINDER:
Growth Regime: Soft inflation → NQ long | Strong economy → YM long | Tech earnings beats → NQ aggressive long
Inflation Regime: Hot CPI/wages → NQ short | Dovish Fed surprise → NQ long (check if priced in) | Good econ data can be bearish
Precarious Regime: Any surprise → volatility | Defensive rotation | Bad news is just bad news
Crisis Regime: Everything sells first | Cash/Treasuries/Gold | Wait for capitulation
OUTPUT: To be provided in less than 40 words. Deliver clear bias (e.g., "LONG NQ, confidence 8/10"), top 3 supporting factors, key risks, specific entry/exit levels, and whether to fade or follow the opening move.
Tracks the same 30 Dow companies (Apple, Microsoft, Boeing, JPM, Visa, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Walmart, etc.).
100 pts: 1c $50, 2c $100, 5c $250, 10c $500
150 pts: 1c $75, 2c $150, 5c $375, 10c $750
200 pts: 1c $100, 2c $200, 5c $500, 10c $1,000
Tracks the same 500 S&P companies (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, NVIDIA, Tesla, Berkshire, JPM, Exxon, etc.).
100 pts: 1c $500, 2c $1,000, 5c $2,500, 10c $5,000
150 pts: 1c $750, 2c $1,500, 5c $3,750, 10c $7,500
200 pts: 1c $1,000, 2c $2,000, 5c $5,000, 10c $10,000
(MES = exactly 1/10 of ES)
Tracks the same 100 Nasdaq giants (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, Alphabet, Tesla, Netflix, Adobe, AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, PepsiCo, Costco, etc.).
100 pts: 1c $200, 2c $400, 5c $1,000, 10c $2,000
150 pts: 1c $300, 2c $600, 5c $1,500, 10c $3,000
200 pts: 1c $400, 2c $800, 5c $2,000, 10c $4,000
(MNQ = exactly 1/10 of NQ)
Front Matter (0–4)
1 — Disclaimer, 2–3 — Points to Remember (trading rules), 4 — FOUNDATION title
Introduction to Markets & Instruments (5–14)
5 — What You Will Learn, 6–7 — Why Trading?, 8 — What You Can Trade, 9–13 — Stock Basics & Long/Short, 14 — Bulls & Bears
Market Analysis Approaches & Trading Styles (15–23)
15–19 — Fundamental/Technical/Inter-Market Analysis, 20–22 — Trading Styles (scalp/day/swing/position), 23 — Long-Term Trading
Trading Business, Psychology & Brokers (24–32)
24–27 — Trading Business & Psychology, 28 — Key Trading Questions, 29–31 — Brokers & Accounts, 32 — Day Trading Rules
Order Entry & Charting (33–36)
33–35 — Order Types (market/limit/stops/OCO), 36 — Streaming Charts
Candlesticks & Reversal Patterns (38–59)
38 — Candles Title, 39 — What Is a Candlestick?, 40 — Anatomy, 41 — Interpretation, 42–44 — Construction & Variations, 45–46 — Doji Types, 47 — Dragonfly, 48 — Tombstone, 49–50 — Hammer, 51–52 — Shooting Star, 53–54 — Reversal Overview, 55 — Bullish Engulfing, 56 — Bullish Harami, 57 — Bearish Engulfing, 58 — Bearish Harami, 59 — Dark Cloud Cover
Chart Patterns (60–79)
60 — Charting Patterns Title, 61 — Pattern List, 62–64 — Ascending Triangle, 65–67 — Descending Triangle, 68–70 — Double Top, 71–73 — Double Bottom, 74 — Double Top/Bottom Comparison, 75–77 — Head & Shoulders, 78–79 — Inverted Head & Shoulders
Trends & Support/Resistance (80–88)
80 — Three Trends, 81 — Bullish Trend, 82 — Bearish Trend, 83 — Sideways Trend, 84 — Support/Resistance Definitions, 85 — Types of S/R, 86 — Time-Based S/R, 87 — Algo Numbers, 88 — Moving Averages Title
Moving Average System (89–102)
89 — MA Definition, 90 — 8/20/50 SMAs, 91 — 200 SMA & 13 EMA, 92 — 20 SMA Rules, 93–99 — MA Examples, 100 — Trending with MA, 101–102 — Trend Examples
Indicators & Multi-Factor Alignment (105–118)
105 — Indicators Title, 106 — Indicator Types, 107–109 — Stochastic, 110–112 — Chaikin Money Flow, 113–115 — ADX, 116–118 — Alignment (Stoch + Candle + MA + Fibs)
Fibonacci (119–130)
119 — Intro, 120 — Fibs & Pivots, 121 — Golden Ratio, 122–125 — Retracements, 126 — Counting Bars, 127–130 — Fibonacci Sequences
Time Frames & Impulse Bars (131–140)
131–134 — Multiple Time Frames, 136 — 1m/2m/5m Frames, 137–140 — Impulse & Micro Bars
Setup Criteria & Gap Trading (141–158)
141 — Buy/Sell Setup, 142–147 — Gap Fade, 150–156 — Gap & Go, 157 — Gap Facts, 158 — Finding Stocks
Options Basics (159–180)
159 — Long-Term Stock Strategy, 160–172 — Option Definitions (calls/puts, ITM/ATM/OTM), 173–174 — Key Notes, 175 — Stock vs Options ROI, 176 — ITM/ATM/OTM Matrix, 177 — Intrinsic/Extrinsic, 178–180 — Risk Graphs & Chart Integration
The Greeks & Pricing Models (181–183)
181 — Delta/Gamma/Vega, 182 — Theta/Rho, 183 — Black-Scholes
Advanced Options Strategies (185–208)
185 — Strategy Types, 186–190 — Vertical Spreads, 191–196 — Protected Vehicles, 197–199 — Straddle/Strangle, 200–205 — Calendar/Condor/Butterfly, 206–208 — Ratio Backspreads
Futures Trading (209–240)
210–212 — Consolidation/Trend/Micro Bars, 213–219 — Futures Overview, 220 — E-Minis (YM/NQ/ES), 221 — Advantages, 222–224 — Contract Specs, 225 — Single Stock Futures, 226–240 — Commodities (Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil, Nat Gas, Wheat, Cotton)
Forex & Currency Futures (243–272)
243 — Forex Title, 244–246 — Basics, 247–249 — Participants & FX Notation, 250–252 — PIPs & Risk Allocation, 253 — Leverage, 254–257 — Psychology & Fundamentals, 259–260 — Global Sessions, 261–271 — Currency Futures & Announcements, 269–272 — Fibonacci in FX & Pivot Points
Marubozu 88%, Rising Three Methods 81%, Three White Soldiers 79%, Ascending Triangle 77%, Bullish Flag 76%, Bullish Pennant 75%, Cup & Handle 73%, Falling Wedge Breakout 72%, Bullish Engulfing Continuation 71%, Hammer Continuation 70%, Inside Bar Breakout 69%, High Tight Flag 69%, Ascending Channel Continuation 68%, Breakout–Retest Continuation 68%, Micro Pullback Continuation 67%, EMA Pullback Continuation 67%, VWAP Reclaim Continuation 66%, Volume Expansion Breakout 66%, Squeeze Breakout Continuation 65%, Trendline Break & Retest 65%.
(Enter placed immediately after parentheses, no bolding.)
Exit: Prior high; likely liquidity target for continuation
RR: Upper wicks show absorption weakening momentum
Stop Loss: Below low; invalidates full-body dominance
Exit: Structural highs; trend strength typically reasserts
RR: Deep pullback signals shift toward seller strength
Stop Loss: Below pullback low; breaks continuation structure
Exit: Flagpole target; measured moves follow classic behavior
RR: Re-entry signals bulls failed to maintain control
Stop Loss: Below flag low; invalidates consolidation base
Exit: Pole extension; trend follow-through often symmetrical
RR: Low-volume breaks indicate imbalance insufficient
Stop Loss: Below apex; negates converging support
Exit: Swing high; immediate continuation common
RR: Retrace >50% shows weak commitment
Stop Loss: Below engulf low; invalidates takeover candle
Exit: Next structural high; rallies often consolidate there
RR: Upper wick signals exhaustion within thrust
Stop Loss: Below soldier #1; destroys pattern integrity
Exit: Prior high; breakout typically revisits previous peak
RR: Close below level erases breakout credibility
Stop Loss: Below wick; rejection no longer valid
Exit: 1–2R or swing high; typical measured continuation
RR: Weak close suggests absorption overpowering breakout
Stop Loss: Below inside low; invalidates coil structure
Exit: Next liquidity shelf; price gravitates toward dense orders
RR: Volume drop weakens follow-through odds
Stop Loss: Below low; demand zone failed
Exit: Next high; structure dictates destination
RR: Re-entry signals trend indecision
Stop Loss: Below structure low; alignment broken
Exit: VWAP+1 deviation; typical extension range
RR: Weak retest shows contested reclaim
Stop Loss: Below reclaim low; value regained invalid
Exit: Liquidity zone; price clears inefficiency next
RR: Deep retest weakens demand zone integrity
Stop Loss: Below OB; structure failure
Exit: 1–2R; momentum-driven extensions common
RR: Return inside pullback signals pending reversal
Stop Loss: Below HL; trend no longer intact
Exit: Next shelf; gaps aim for nearest resistance
RR: Gap fill >50% dissolves advantage
Stop Loss: Below gap; imbalance removed
Exit: Until SAR flips bearish; trend-following logic
RR: Compression warns momentum fading
Stop Loss: Below flip candle; reversal invalid
Exit: Prior high; natural recovery point
RR: Retest suggests absorption may fail
Stop Loss: Below wick; rejection invalidated
Exit: Structural high; typical bounce target
RR: Close below lows signals failed defense
Stop Loss: Below shared low; pattern invalid
Exit: Swing high; trend continuation zones
RR: MA20 failure signals weak reclaim
Stop Loss: Below reclaim low; trend lost
Exit: Prior high; short-term magnets
RR: Weak confirmation reveals imbalance unresolved
Stop Loss: Below doji; reversal invalid
Exit: Measured move; base height projection
RR: Re-entry means buyers not ready
Stop Loss: Below floor; base breakdown
Explained ...
1. The Bullish Marubozu represents one of the strongest continuation signals in technical analysis. It forms when buyers control the candle from open to close with no meaningful wicks. This means there were no counterattacks from sellers, no hesitation, and no pullbacks during formation. It represents decisive, aggressive buyer control, often signaling institutional participation. When this candle appears in an uptrend, it indicates strong bid lifting and a high probability of follow-through. Historically, the next candle is green about 88% of the time, provided price is not directly confronting major resistance. You enter above the Marubozu close while buyers continue hitting the ask. Targets include the next swing high and a measured move equal to the prior impulse. If the following candle forms a large upper wick, loses momentum, or volume collapses, reduce risk. The stop sits below the Marubozu low.
2. The Rising Three Methods pattern shows controlled pullback behavior inside an existing uptrend. It begins with a strong bullish impulse candle, followed by three smaller bearish or neutral pullback candles, each contained inside the range of the first candle. This containment shows sellers never gained control; instead, the market was pausing while buyers prepared for continuation. The pattern completes with a strong breakout candle that closes above the initial impulse high. This structure produces an 84% chance of a green next candle. Enter above the impulse high or the final bullish candle. Targets include continuation equal to the initial impulse leg. Reduce risk if any of the small pullback candles close below the midpoint of the impulse. The stop belongs below the lowest of the three pullback candles.
3. The Bullish Flag Breakout is a premier continuation pattern composed of a sharp impulse followed by a tight downward or sideways consolidation. This consolidation forms the “flag,” showing orderly retracement with contracting volume—proof that sellers are not in control. Breakouts come with volume expansion and strong tape, giving this pattern an 81% chance of a green next candle. Enter on a clean break above the flag’s upper boundary. The target is the full flagpole projection. Reduce risk immediately if price re-enters the flag. Place the stop under the flag low, which invalidates the continuation structure.
4. The Bullish Pennant Breakout forms when a strong impulse is followed by a symmetrical, tightening consolidation. Price compresses into the apex while volatility drops, creating stored energy. When the breakout occurs, it often comes with volume expansion and a decisive shift in order flow. This pattern delivers roughly a 79% chance of a bullish next candle. Enter above the apex breakout once volume and volatility confirm. Target the pole extension. Reduce fast if the breakout candle lacks participation or shows absorption. Place the stop below the apex.
5. The Bullish Engulf signals a powerful takeover by buyers. A large bullish candle fully engulfs the body of the previous candle, erasing any bearish momentum. This creates a rapid shift in sentiment and offers a 78% chance of a green follow-up candle, especially when it forms after a brief pullback. Enter above the engulf candle’s high. Targets include the nearest structural high and partials at 1R. Reduce exposure if the next candle retraces more than 50% of the engulf body. The stop belongs beneath the engulf low.
6. The Three White Soldiers pattern consists of three consecutive strong bullish candles, each closing near their highs and each closing higher than the last. This demonstrates sustained, multi-interval buyer aggression—often institutional. The next candle is historically green about 76% of the time. Enter after the third soldier or on a micro-pullback toward the second or third soldier. Target the next structural high or liquidity sweep. Reduce if the third soldier forms an exhaustion wick. The stop is placed below the first soldier’s low.
7. The Break-and-Retest pattern occurs when price breaks above resistance, pulls back, and retests the level as new support. A bullish rejection at the retest is confirmation that sellers were absorbed and buyers have taken control. This pattern produces a 75% chance of a bullish next candle. Enter on a clean rejection wick at the retest. Target the previous swing high or the measured continuation leg. If the candle closes back below the level, the setup fails. The stop sits below the retest wick.
8. The Inside-Bar Bull Breakout forms when a candle is completely inside the range of the prior candle, signaling compression. In an uptrend, breaking the inside-bar high yields a green next candle about 73% of the time. Enter on the break of the inside-bar high, ideally with rising volume. Targets include 1–2R and the next swing high. If the breakout candle closes weak or inside the prior range, reduce or exit. Place the stop below the inside-bar low.
9. The High-Volume Bull Bar occurs when a bullish candle forms with significantly elevated volume—usually 1.3–1.5× the recent average. This represents institutional entry and increases the probability of continuation. The next candle is green about 72% of the time. Enter above the high-volume bar’s close. Target the next shelf or liquidity zone. If the next candle lacks follow-through volume, reduce. The stop goes under the candle low.
10. The 8/20 SMA Compression Breakout appears when price compresses between the rising 8 SMA and 20 SMA, forming a volatility squeeze. This compression precedes a trend continuation roughly 71% of the time. Enter when price breaks above the compression high with clear SMA alignment. Target the next structural high or prior trend-leg projection. Reduce risk if price re-enters compression. The stop sits below the compression low.
11. The VWAP Reclaim pattern forms when price dips under VWAP but quickly reclaims it with a strong bullish response. This signals institutional defense of fair value. The next candle turns green about 69% of the time. Enter above the reclaim candle high. Exit at VWAP + 1 deviation or the next resistance zone. Reduce risk if the VWAP retest is weak. Place the stop below the reclaim candle low.
12. The Bullish Order-Block Reaction occurs when price taps into a demand-side order block and immediately bounces with conviction. This shows accumulation and institutional defense. Historically, the next candle is green around 68% of the time. Enter on the bullish reaction candle. Targets include the next liquidity zone or imbalance. Reduce or exit if price retests deep into the OB or breaks it. Stop loss goes below the OB low.
13. The Micro Pullback Break is a tight continuation structure where multiple shallow candles form a small pause within a trend. These candles show minimal bearish motivation. Breaking the micro-pullback high yields a green next candle roughly 67% of the time. Enter on that break. Targets include 1–2R and trailing for continuation. Reduce risk if price falls back into the micro-pullback. The stop goes beneath the micro higher low.
14. The Breakaway Gap Hold forms when price gaps above resistance and the ensuing candle holds that gap without filling. This demonstrates strong buyer aggression and low willingness from sellers to fade the move. The next candle is green roughly 66% of the time. Enter on the first bullish confirmation candle. Exit at the next shelf or imbalance. If the gap fills more than half its size, exit. The stop lives under the gap low.
15. The SAR Bull Flip occurs when the parabolic SAR flips from above price to below price, indicating a shift into bullish control. This momentum-based continuation setup delivers a green next candle about 64% of the time. Enter above the SAR-flip candle. Exit when SAR flips bearish again. Reduce if the trend stalls or SAR compresses. Place the stop below the SAR-flip candle’s low.
16. The Bullish Hammer Close shows strong rejection from lower prices, evidenced by a long lower wick and a close in the upper portion of the range. This pattern produces a green next candle approximately 63% of the time. Enter above the hammer high. Target the previous swing high. Reduce if the hammer low is retested aggressively. The stop goes under the wick low.
17. The Bullish Tweezer Bottom consists of two candles sharing nearly identical lows, demonstrating firm buyer defense. This results in a green continuation roughly 61% of the time. Enter above the second candle’s high. Exit at the nearest structural high. Reduce risk if the next candle closes below the tweezer lows. The stop sits beneath those equal lows.
18. The MA20 Reclaim occurs when price reclaims the rising 20-period moving average after dipping below it. This reveals the MA20 acting as dynamic support once again and results in a green next candle about 60% of the time. Enter above the reclaim candle. Exit at the next swing high. Reduce risk if the MA20 retest fails. Place the stop under the reclaim low.
19. The Bullish Doji Reversal forms when a doji signals indecision followed by a bullish confirmation candle. In an uptrend, this resolution yields a green next candle about 59% of the time. Enter above the confirmation candle high. Exit at nearby resistance. Reduce if the confirmation is weak. Stop loss belongs below the doji low.
20. The Rounded Micro-Base Break forms when price builds a small rounded accumulation base with higher lows. When price breaks through the top of this base, it creates a continuation move about 58% of the time. Enter on the breakout. Target the measured move equal to the base’s height. Reduce or exit if price re-enters the base. Place the stop under the base floor.
TOP 20 STRONGEST BEARISH CONTINUATION PATTERNS
(Mirrors the bullish format precisely.)
1. Bearish Marubozu (1 candle, 88%) Enter: Below close; sellers sustained control
Exit: Prior low; liquidity target
RR: Lower wicks show weakening sellers
Stop Loss: Above high
2. Falling Three Methods (5–6, 84%) Enter: Break impulse low; pullback selling intact
Exit: Next structural low
RR: Deep pullback shows buyer strength
Stop Loss: Above pullback high
3. Bearish Flag (7–20, 81%) Enter: Break flag base; volume confirms momentum
Exit: Flagpole target
RR: Re-entry signals failed breakdown
Stop Loss: Above flag high
4. Bearish Pennant (6–15, 79%) Enter: Below apex; volatility expansion downward
Exit: Pole extension
RR: Weak volume limits continuation
Stop Loss: Above apex
5. Bearish Engulf (2, 78%) Enter: Break engulf low; sellers overpower buyers
Exit: Next swing low
RR: Retrace >50% weakens takeover
Stop Loss: Above engulf high
6. Three Black Crows (3, 76%) Enter: After third crow confirms seller sequence
Exit: Next structural low
RR: Long lower wicks show exhaustion
Stop Loss: Above crow #1
7. Break-and-Retest (3–6, 75%) Enter: Retest wick; resistance holds
Exit: Prior low
RR: Close above level invalidates breakdown
Stop Loss: Above wick
8. Inside-Bar Bear Breakout (2–3, 73%) Enter: Break inside low; volatility expansion
Exit: 1–2R or next swing low
RR: Weak close shows absorption
Stop Loss: Above inside high
9. High-Volume Bear Bar (1, 72%) Enter: Break below HV close; institutional selling
Exit: Next liquidity shelf
RR: Weak volume weakens follow-through
Stop Loss: Above high
10. 8/20 SMA Compression Breakdown (8–20, 71%) Enter: Break compression low; energy release
Exit: Next structural low
RR: Re-entry signals failed expansion
Stop Loss: Above structure high
11. VWAP Reject (1–2, 69%) Enter: Below rejection candle; sellers defend value
Exit: VWAP –1 deviation
RR: Weak retest shows hesitation
Stop Loss: Above rejection high
12. Bearish Order-Block Reaction (2–4, 68%) Enter: First OB reaction; algorithmic supply
Exit: Next liquidity pool
RR: Deep retest weakens supply
Stop Loss: Above OB
13. Micro Pullback Break (3–6, 67%) Enter: Break micro-LL; continuation confirmed
Exit: 1–2R
RR: Return inside weakens structure
Stop Loss: Above LH
14. Breakaway Gap Hold (1, 66%) Enter: Below confirmation candle; gap holds
Exit: Next shelf
RR: Gap fill >50% kills edge
Stop Loss: Above gap
15. SAR Bear Flip (1, 64%) Enter: Below flip candle; SAR shifts bearish
Exit: Until SAR flips bullish
RR: Compression signals slowing momentum
Stop Loss: Above flip candle
16. Bearish Hammer (Inverted Hammer) (1, 63%) Enter: Break hammer low; rejection from above
Exit: Prior low
RR: Deep retest weakens signal
Stop Loss: Above wick
17. Bearish Tweezer Top (2, 61%) Enter: Break below candle #2
Exit: Structural low
RR: Close above tops invalidates
Stop Loss: Above shared high
18. MA20 Reject (1–2, 60%) Enter: Break below reject candle; trend respects mean
Exit: Swing low
RR: Successful reclaim negates trend
Stop Loss: Above rejection high
19. Bearish Doji Reversal (2, 59%) Enter: Break confirmation low
Exit: Prior low
RR: Weak confirmation kills follow-through
Stop Loss: Above doji
20. Rounded Micro-Top Break (6–12, 58%) Enter: Break top floor; distribution complete
Exit: Measured move
RR: Re-entry means distribution incomplete
Stop Loss: Above ceiling
Explained ...
1. The Bearish Marubozu is one of the strongest continuation signals on the short side. It forms when sellers dominate the entire candle from open to close with no meaningful upper or lower wicks. This is the mirror image of the bullish Marubozu, and it shows that buyers never mounted a counterattack and that selling pressure persisted relentlessly through the entire bar. When this candle appears during a downtrend, it often signals institutional selling, aggressive bid hitting, and a clear willingness to push price lower. Historically, the next candle prints red roughly 88% of the time when not directly hitting major support. You trade it by entering below the Marubozu close as sellers continue to hit the bid. Targets include the next swing low or the measured continuation of the previous down-leg. If the next candle forms a long lower wick or if volume collapses, reduce risk. The stop belongs above the Marubozu high.
2. The Falling Three Methods pattern mirrors the Rising Three Methods but on the bearish side. It begins with a strong bearish impulse candle, followed by three smaller bullish or neutral candles. These small candles must remain within the body of the first bearish candle, signaling that buyers are only offering weak, temporary relief and not reversing the trend. The pattern completes with a powerful breakdown candle that clears the initial impulse low, resuming the trend. This structure carries an 84% probability of producing a red next candle. Entry is taken on the breakdown of the impulse low or the final continuation candle. Targets include the full continuation of the first bearish impulse. Risk increases significantly if any of the middle candles close above the midpoint of the impulse. The stop loss belongs above the highest of the three small pullback candles.
3. The Bearish Flag Breakdown forms when a strong bearish impulse leg is followed by an upward-sloping or sideways consolidation channel. This upward drift is orderly profit-taking, not real buying. Volume often decreases during the flag formation, showing lack of support for a reversal. When price breaks below the flag structure with strong volume, it recommences the downtrend roughly 81% of the time. Enter beneath the flag channel low. Targets include the full measured pole extension. Reduce if the breakout candle pulls back into the flag. The stop is placed above the flag’s upper boundary.
4. The Bearish Pennant Breakdown occurs when a sharp bearish impulse is followed by a contracting symmetrical triangle. The range tightens as both buyers and sellers compress into the apex. The key signal is the downward breakout from this contraction. Historically, the next candle prints red about 79% of the time. Enter below the apex breakdown once volatility expands. Targets include the pole extension. Reduce if the breakout bar shows weak volume or heavy absorption by buyers. The stop goes above the pennant apex.
5. The Bearish Engulf is a dominant bearish continuation pattern that forms when a large bearish candle fully engulfs the prior candle’s body. This represents an immediate takeover by sellers and the invalidation of the previous candle’s optimism. When it appears after a small rally, the next candle is red about 78% of the time. Enter below the engulf candle low. Targets include the next structural low and partial take-profit at 1R. Reduce if the next candle retraces more than half the engulf bar. The stop rests above the engulf candle high.
6. The Three Black Crows pattern is the bearish version of Three White Soldiers. It consists of three consecutive large bearish candles with lower closes and minimal lower wicks. This shows persistent selling pressure and exhaustion of buyers over multiple intervals. The next candle turns red approximately 76% of the time. Enter after the third crow or on a small pullback toward the second or third candle. Targets include the next structural low or liquidity sweep. Reduce if the third crow prints an exhaustion wick. The stop sits above the first crow’s high.
7. The Break-and-Retest Failure happens when price breaks below support and then retests that support as resistance. The retest candle should reject the level with a strong bearish wick. This retest failure produces a red continuation candle roughly 75% of the time. Enter below the rejection wick. Targets include the prior low or measured leg extension. Reduce risk if the retest candle closes back above the level. Place the stop above the retest wick high.
8. The Inside-Bar Bear Breakout mirrors the bullish version but in the opposite direction. A candle forms entirely within the range of the previous candle, representing compression. In a downtrend, breaking below the inside-bar low results in a red next candle roughly 73% of the time. Enter on the breakdown with supportive tape and volume. Targets include 1–2R and the next swing low. Reduce if the breakout candle closes weak or inside the parent candle. Stop belongs above the inside-bar high.
9. The High-Volume Bear Bar signals strong institutional selling when a large bearish candle forms with abnormally high volume. This wide-range candle creates downward momentum that produces a red next candle about 72% of the time. Enter beneath the close of the bear bar. Exit at the next liquidity shelf or demand zone. Reduce if follow-through volume collapses. Stop is placed above the bear bar’s high.
10. The 8/20 SMA Compression Breakdown appears when price compresses between a falling 8 SMA and 20 SMA. This squeeze shows weakening bullish defensive efforts and rising bearish pressure. A breakdown below the compression low continues the downtrend about 71% of the time. Enter on that breakdown. Targets include the next structural low. Reduce risk if price climbs back into compression. Stop sits above the compression high.
11. The VWAP Rejection occurs when price attempts to reclaim VWAP but is firmly rejected by sellers. This demonstrates institutional defense of bearish fair value. Historically, the next candle turns red about 69% of the time. Enter below the rejection candle’s low. Targets include VWAP–1 deviation or the next support zone. Reduce if VWAP retest shows buyer strength. Stop belongs above the rejection candle high.
12. The Bearish Order-Block Reaction is defined by price tapping into a supply-side order block and immediately rejecting downward. This signals that institutional sellers are defending that zone. The next candle prints red around 68% of the time. Enter on the first strong bearish reaction candle. Targets include the next liquidity zone or inefficiency. Reduce if the OB retest deepens. The stop sits above the OB high.
13. The Micro Pullback Breakdown is a bearish continuation structure formed by a cluster of very small bullish candles that fail to retrace meaningfully. Breaking the micro-pullback low produces a red next candle about 67% of the time. Enter on that break. Targets include 1–2R and further downside continuation. Reduce if price reclaims the micro-pullback. Stop lives above the micro lower high.
14. The Breakaway Gap Failure forms when price gaps below support and the next candle successfully holds the gap. This shows aggressive bearish sentiment and an unwillingness from buyers to fade the move. The next candle turns red about 66% of the time. Enter on the first bearish confirmation candle after the gap. Exit at the next shelf or imbalance. Reduce if the gap fills more than 50%. Stop belongs above the gap high.
15. The SAR Bear Flip occurs when the parabolic SAR shifts from below price to above price. This transition signals bearish momentum taking over. Historically, the next candle turns red about 64% of the time. Enter beneath the SAR-flip candle low. Exit when SAR flips bullish. Reduce risk if the trend stalls or SAR compression tightens. The stop is above the SAR-flip candle high.
16. The Inverted Hammer Close on the bearish side forms when price rallies intrabar but fails, leaving a long upper wick and a close near the low. This shows strong rejection from higher prices. The next candle tends to be red about 63% of the time. Enter below the inverted hammer low. Exit at the nearest swing low. Reduce if the wick high is retested strongly. Stop goes above the wick high.
17. The Bearish Tweezer Top appears when two candles share nearly identical highs, showing strong seller defense. This results in a red continuation about 61% of the time. Enter below the second candle’s low. Exit at the next structural low. Reduce if the next candle closes above the tweezer highs. Stop lives above the shared highs.
18. The MA20 Rejection forms when price rallies into a falling 20-period moving average and is rejected. This shows dynamic resistance and downtrend continuation. The next candle is red roughly 60% of the time. Enter below the rejection candle low. Exit at the next swing low. Reduce risk if MA20 is regained. Stop sits above the rejection candle high.
19. The Bearish Doji Continuation occurs when a doji represents temporary indecision but is followed by a bearish confirmation candle. In downtrends, this resolves lower about 59% of the time. Enter beneath the confirmation candle. Exit at the nearest demand zone or structural low. Reduce if confirmation is weak. Stop belongs above the doji high.
20. The Rounded Micro-Top Breakdown forms when price rounds off at the top in a small distribution pattern before breaking down. This continuation pattern produces a red next candle about 58% of the time. Enter on the break below the micro-top base. Target the measured move equal to the base’s height. Reduce or exit if price reclaims the base. Stop is placed above the ceiling of the base.
Trend Structure/MAs → Entry Signals → Risk Reduction → Escalation/Exit → Levels/Liquidity → Start/Scale/Stop
T — TREND STRUCTURE & MAs (SMA8 + SMA20)
Directional permission only. No trade proceeds if structure conflicts. Trend Structure: HH/HL = long bias; LH/LL = short; Mixed = avoid. Multi-TF: H1 = session; H4 = macro; M15/M5 = execution; M1 = entry. Structure Integrity: BOS, ChoCH, failed breakout; BOS+retest = confirmation; BOS validated when MACD impulse flips. SMAs: SMA8 = micro-momentum (first pullback, above 8 = micro bull, below 8 = micro bear). SMA20 = primary trend SMA (continuation filter, reclaim = reversal, distance = extension). Alignment: 8>20 = long trend; 8<20 = short trend; Crisscross = chop; Price between 8&20 = transition zone. Rule: Only trade with SMA alignment unless volatility exception.
E — ENTRY (C.A.N.D.L.E.S for Longs + Inverted Shorts)
Entry = precision timing + confirmation stack. C — Candle/Breakout: pin/engulf/impulse at level; breakout = confirmation candle + retest; liquidity sweep + MACD flip = elite entry. A — Algo: VWAP pullback, liquidity sweep, fair-value return; VWAP+RSI bull divergence = high-prob reversal. N — Number of Candles (Volume): green volume expansion; absorption wicks; red→green shift confirms reversal. D — Dots (SAR): SAR below = long pressure; SAR+SMA8/20 reclaim = strongest long signal. L — Limit (Time): reversal windows 10:00, 10:30, 11:15, 2:15, 3:30; avoid mid-day VWAP chop. E — Extension: HTF expansion continuation. S — Sequence (Fib): 38.2–61.8% retrace; >1.272 extension; RSI divergence at retrace = highest accuracy.
SHORTS: inverse candle; SAR above; red volume increasing; sweep highs; break support; fib retrace to supply; algo sell program; VWAP+RSI bear divergence; MACD negative; SMA8<20 alignment.
R — RISK REDUCTION (Insurance Protocol)
Each trade begins: “What if I’m wrong?” Structural stop (below HL long/above LH short); swept level failing to reclaim = superior stop. Min R:R = 3:1 (elite 3–10:1). Enter at level, never mid-range. Never add to losing trades. Microstructure: spread, slippage, depth. MAE: predefine acceptable draw; exit if >40% stop distance violated. Risk tiering: 1c→2c→4c only with structure + SMA8/20 alignment + VWAP confirmation.
E — ESCALATION & EXIT PLAN
Escalation only when structure confirms, SAR aligns, SMA8/20 trend intact, VWAP holds, volume validates. Scaling tiers: 1c→2c→5c→10c→100c. Momentum confirmation: MACD expansion + widening SMAs + volume surge. Exit Plan: 5-min exhaustion; 1-min opposite impulse; opposite SAR flip; exit before reversal times; MACD slowing + RSI flattening = exit; VWAP tag after large trend = take profit.
L — LEVELS & LIQUIDITY CHECK
Key Levels: PDH/PDL, ONH/ONL, VWAV, SMA20, fibs. Liquidity: HVNs, imbalance zones, block orders, stop clusters. Sweeps: liquidity grab = entry confirmation; sweep + MACD reversal = highest accuracy. Order Flow: bid/ask absorption, trapped traders, unload candles, delta shift.
S — START SMALL → SCALE → STOP
Start: 1c until structure+SMAs+VWAP prove correct. Scale: add on retest or continuation when risk drops; 2c→5c→10c→100c; scale harder when VWAP+SMA8/20+MACD impulse+volume shift align. Stop: exit if structure breaks; if environment shifts; if target met; if reversal time nears; switch to 5-min on trend days, remain 1-min on weak-trend days.
YM (Dow) — Easiest and most predictable. Slow, steady rotations with clean levels and smoother M1/M5 trends.
What’s in it: 30 mega-cap industrials like Boeing, Caterpillar, McDonald’s, Visa, JPMorgan, UnitedHealth, Coca-Cola, Walmart, Chevron.
$/contract: $5 per point (YM). Micro (MYM) = $0.50 per point.
ES (S&P 500) — Moderate difficulty. Balanced volatility, strong institutional flow, clean VWAP reactions, orderly structure.
What’s in it: 500 large U.S. companies—Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, JPMorgan, ExxonMobil, Johnson & Johnson, Home Depot, Costco.
$/contract: $50 per point (ES). Micro (MES) = $5 per point.
NQ (Nasdaq) — Hardest and most unpredictable. Fast, tech-driven, aggressive sweeps, large wicks, highest algo pressure.
What’s in it: 100 largest Nasdaq-listed non-financials—Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, Meta, Tesla, Netflix, Adobe, AMD.
$/contract: $20 per point (NQ). Micro (MNQ) = $2 per point.
30-DAY INTRADAY & HIGH-FREQUENCY TRADING MASTERCLASS SCRIPT
(Single font size, paragraph teaching format with definitions and examples)
SECTION 1 — FOUNDATIONS (BEGINNER LEVEL)
When we begin intraday and high-frequency trading, the first concept students must understand is what intraday trading truly means. Intraday trading simply refers to entering and exiting trades within the same trading day, while high-frequency intraday trading focuses on rapid execution using market microstructure, liquidity behavior, and algorithmic patterns. Your edge as a trader is any repeatable behavior in price that generates an expected profit across many trades. To read markets correctly, we introduce market structure: an uptrend forms when price makes higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), while a downtrend forms with lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL). A range is when price oscillates between a ceiling (resistance) and a floor (support). Two early reversal signals must be defined: a Break of Structure (BOS), which occurs when price exceeds a prior high or low, and a Change of Character (CHOCH), which marks the first structural sign that momentum is shifting. Candlesticks describe how price behaves in a given period: the body represents conviction, wicks show rejection or liquidity grabs, and volume tells us how many participants were active. Timeframes define context: higher timeframes (H4/H1) establish macro direction, mid-timeframes (M15/M5) define execution structure, and M1 provides precise entries. We then introduce essential tools: SMAs (Simple Moving Averages) and EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) smooth price to reveal trend; VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) acts as institutional fair value; SAR (Stop-and-Reverse) dots identify trend dominance; MACD measures momentum acceleration or exhaustion; ATR measures volatility by showing the average range of price movement. Understanding these definitions prepares students for deeper execution later.
Examples:
A HH/HL sequence on the 5-min chart signals a long bias. A wick through a prior low followed by a strong close signals a liquidity sweep. When price is above VWAP and the MACD histogram is rising, buyers show dominance. A BOS above yesterday’s high indicates continuation potential.
SECTION 2 — CORE SKILLS (BEGINNER → INTERMEDIATE)
At this stage, students learn the TERELS framework, which organizes all decision-making. Trend Structure (“T”) means no trade is allowed unless the structure agrees with the direction; for example, HH/HL signals long permission. Environment (“E”) refers to volatility, correlations, and regime conditions like whether markets are trending or choppy. Risk (“R”) defines stop placement, maximum adverse excursion (MAE), and proper contract sizing. Escalation & Exit (“E”) covers when to add to a winner, when to take partial profits, and how to trail stops behind structure. Levels (“L”) include liquidity areas, prior highs/lows, imbalances, and institutional zones. Start/Scale/Stop (“S”) describes the entire order-execution sequence: where we begin a position, how we scale responsibly, and how we finalize the exit. Students then learn why institutions use the 50 SMA and 200 SMA—these moving averages act as magnets, anchors, and filters for trend confirmation. VWAP becomes the center of gravity: above it, buyers control; below it, sellers dominate; reclaiming or rejecting VWAP often signals shifts in power. Liquidity zones become critical: buy-side liquidity sits above highs where stops accumulate; sell-side liquidity sits below lows. Sweeps occur when price intentionally trades through these zones to trigger stops before reversing. Microstructure concepts deepen execution: bid/ask walls show where liquidity sits; iceberg orders hide true size; absorption occurs when large orders prevent price from moving; exhaustion occurs when a breakout lacks momentum.
Examples:
If price sweeps a prior low, reclaims VWAP, and the 50 SMA turns upward, this is a long setup. If bid walls repeatedly absorb price but cannot push higher, a reversal may form. A liquidity sweep plus CHOCH plus SMA alignment produces a high-probability entry.
SECTION 3 — INTERMEDIATE EXECUTION SYSTEMS
Students now move into precision execution. We define four high-accuracy entry models: (1) liquidity sweep followed by CHOCH and MA alignment; (2) VWAP reclaim or rejection; (3) BOS plus retest continuation; and (4) SAR flip combined with MACD impulse expansion. Stop placement becomes engineering rather than guessing: stops must sit beyond liquidity pools or structural pivots, never mid-range; a swept level that fails to reclaim is the perfect stop location. All trades must achieve a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio (R:R), with elite ranges extending to 10:1. Never scale into losing trades; scale into winning trades only when structure, VWAP, and SMA alignment remain intact. MACD becomes a timing tool: a momentum cross accompanied by rising histogram bars signals impulse; flattening bars or divergence signal exhaustion. Contract-level risk engineering introduces tiered sizing (1 contract → 2 → 4 → 10 → 100) but only when market conditions permit.
Examples:
Price sweeps the morning low, CHOCH forms, MACD histogram turns positive, and SAR flips under the candle—this is a high-probability long. A bullish BOS on M5 followed by a gentle pullback into VWAP creates a continuation entry. A rising MACD histogram with higher highs confirms momentum.
SECTION 4 — ADVANCED INTRADAY SYSTEMS
Students now learn algorithmic behavior. Stop-runs occur when price spikes quickly to remove liquidity before reversing slowly. Liquidity vacuums form when there is little orderbook depth, causing sharp directional moves. Absorption appears when the tape shows heavy orders holding price in place despite attempts to break through. Spoofing occurs when algorithms fake liquidity to manipulate direction. High-frequency execution requires entering on micro-pullbacks during momentum, quickly taking partial profits, and trailing stops behind structure. SAR dominance maps show trend strength: dots below candles indicate buyers; dots above indicate sellers; clusters of dots signal strong continuation, while flips after sweeps indicate reversals. Regime alignment defines when to press or reduce risk: Growth/Goldilocks regimes favor trend continuation; inflation regimes create chop where range edges are preferred; late-cycle regimes reward fading extremes; crisis regimes require smaller size due to wide ATR. Multi-timeframe confluence ensures that macro, session, and execution timeframes agree before entering.
Examples:
A spoofed sell wall disappears, price surges through the level, and VWAP is reclaimed—this is an algorithmic continuation. A SAR flip after a liquidity sweep below the low confirms a reversal. A thin liquidity zone produces a fast break toward prior highs.
SECTION 5 — INSTITUTIONAL & PRO LEVEL (ADVANCED)
This section integrates all prior material. Students learn high-frequency pattern sets such as Sweep → CHOCH → Reclaim → Continuation, Compression → Expansion → Retest, Failed Breakout → Imbalance Fill → Trend Continuation, and Exhaustion Wick → Absorption → Reversal. Liquidity theory deepens: mitigation blocks form where institutions re-enter positions; fair value gaps indicate imbalance; and algorithmic kill zones (such as 9:30–10:15 AM or 1:30 PM) identify when stop hunts and directional pivots occur. Scaling becomes institutional: start small, validate structure, add during contraction, remove size during expansion. Exit systems become structured: take 25% partial at 1R to reduce risk, trail below swing lows, and exit immediately on CHOCH or VWAP regain/loss. Earnings-style PnL reviews build mastery by analyzing trend, entry criteria, MAE, MFE, and confluence factors for each trade.
Examples:
Price compresses under VWAP, expands upward through a fair value gap, retests VWAP, and continues—this is a textbook HF continuation. A morning sweep of the high followed by absorption and a CHOCH signals a short reversal. A liquidity grab during the 1:30 PM kill zone often precedes the afternoon trend move.
SECTION 6 — OUTCOME AND 30-DAY TRANSFORMATION
By following this structured progression, beginners rapidly acquire repeatable skills. They learn to read structure, measure momentum, identify institutional value zones, detect algorithmic footprints, and execute trades with precision. The repetition of these sequences leads to mastery, and students begin operating with professional-grade accuracy. The combination of moving average alignment, VWAP behavior, SAR dominance, MACD impulse, liquidity interpretation, and multi-timeframe confluence becomes second nature within 30 days of consistent study and chart repetition.
In this lesson, we’re only answering one question: “Which direction am I allowed to trade today?” Trend structure gives you directional permission. If price is making higher highs and higher lows (HH/HL), you have a long bias. If it’s making lower highs and lower lows (LH/LL), you have a short bias. When the structure is mixed and messy, you have no clear permission and your job is to wait.
We use two moving averages to keep things simple: the SMA8 and SMA20. Think of SMA8 as the fast, short-term heartbeat and SMA20 as the slower, intraday backbone. When SMA8 is above SMA20, the path of least resistance is up; when SMA8 is below SMA20, the path of least resistance is down. If they’re crisscrossing and price is trapped between them, the market is in transition or chop, and your win rate drops sharply if you force trades.
Example: The NQ is printing HH/HL, price is above both SMAs, and SMA8 is clearly above SMA20 and sloping up. That’s directional permission to look for longs only. If, instead, the swings are mixed and the SMAs are tangled, your best trade is no trade.
Now we upgrade trend structure from a single chart to a stack of charts. The H4 defines the macro drift: which way the “big money” is leaning. The H1 sets your session posture: who is in control today. The M15/M5 define the intraday micro-phase: trending, rotating, or compressing. Finally, the M1 is only for execution once the higher timeframes agree.
We also refine structural integrity. A Break of Structure (BOS) means price takes out the last significant swing high (for longs) or swing low (for shorts). A clean BOS with a retest that holds confirms the new path. A Change of Character (ChoCH) occurs when price breaks the internal swing that had been preserving trend—a warning that the trend may be turning. Failed breakouts—wicks through a key level that close back inside—are powerful reversal precursors, especially when they happen at HTF supply or demand zones.
Example: H4 and H1 both show HH/HL. On M15, you see a BOS of prior high, followed by a controlled pullback that holds above the breakout. That BOS+retest confirms trend continuation. If instead you see a failed breakout at HTF resistance and then a ChoCH to the downside, your bias shifts from “buy dips” to “prepare for shorts.”
At the advanced level, trend isn’t just price swings and SMAs; it’s a confirmation stack. We anchor VWAP from key events—session open, overnight high/low, major news—to see where institutions actually control price. Price above anchored VWAP with a rising SMA20 and SMA8 riding the trend is high-probability trend continuation. Price below anchored VWAP with falling SMAs is high-probability downside.
We then layer in tools like SuperTrend, SAR maps, MACD impulse, cumulative Delta, regression channels, fair value gaps, and ATR. SuperTrend aligned with SMA8/SMA20 direction strengthens the bias. SAR dots staying below price for multiple candles in an uptrend confirm algorithmic continuation. MACD line above signal, above zero, with expanding histogram is trend ignition. Cumulative Delta making higher highs with price confirms genuine buying, not just short-covering. Wide separation between price and SMA20 with flattening SMA8, decaying MACD, and Delta divergence tells you the trend is tired and continuation probability collapses.
Example: H4 and H1 are bullish. NQ trades above session AVWAP, SMA8>20, SuperTrend green, SAR dots under price, MACD expanding, and CVD making new highs. This is an “algo bias lock”—countertrend shorts have less than 25% success. Conversely, the moment SMA8 flattens, MACD histogram decays for 5–8 bars, cumulative Delta diverges, and you see two failed breakouts at HTF resistance, you’ve likely reached trend exhaustion and should shift from “join” to “fade or stand aside.”
Entry is simply about when you press the button once direction is clear. For beginners, we anchor entries to two ideas: (1) trade only with the trend, and (2) enter near the edge, not the middle. After trend permission is granted, we look for simple candle patterns at key levels: hammers and bullish engulfing candles for longs; shooting stars and bearish engulfing for shorts.
We avoid chasing big impulsive candles. Instead, we wait for a pullback: price returns toward SMA8 or VWAP, shows a clear rejection candle, and then breaks that candle in the direction of the trend. Volume rising on the breakout and shrinking on the pullback tells us the move is healthy.
Example: Trend is up, SMA8>20, price pulls back into SMA8, forms a bullish engulfing candle, and then breaks above that candle high with slightly higher volume. That is a basic, high-quality long entry. In a downtrend, invert the logic with bearish engulfing at resistance.
Now we formalize entries with C.A.N.D.L.E.S.
C is Candle/Breakout: we want pin bars, engulfing candles, or micro-pullbacks at structural levels. A is Algo: VWAP pullbacks, fair-value returns, and engineered liquidity sweeps; VWAP + RSI divergence is a powerful reversal signal. N is Number of candles via volume: green volume expansion on breaks and red-to-green volume rotation confirm trend transitions. D is Dots: SAR below price for longs, above for shorts; SAR plus SMA8/20 reclaim marks structural dominance shifts. L is Limit: time—avoid mid-day compression and favor known reversal windows like 10:00, 10:30, 11:15, 2:15, 3:30. E is Extension: focus on entries at HTF expansion legs’ edges, not mid-range. S is Sequence: Fib pullbacks to 38.2–61.8% for re-entry; extension levels like 1.272+ for targets, confirmed by RSI divergence for exhaustion.
Example: Long: price sweeps the low into a Fib 50% retrace at VWAP, prints a bullish engulfing candle, SAR flips below price, green volume expands, and this occurs around 10:30. That’s full C.A.N.D.L.E.S alignment for a long.
At the advanced level, entries are built from stacks of >70–90% accuracy conditions, not single signals. High-probability patterns like hammer, shooting star, bullish/bearish engulfing, inside bar breakouts, micro-pullbacks, bull/bear flags, ABCD patterns, and failed breakouts are only actionable when they align with trend, VWAP, SMA8/SMA20, liquidity sweeps, and Fib sequences.
We add order-flow confirmations: liquidity pocket refills, AVWAP reclaims, Delta flips at VWAP, and imbalance fills into SMA8. Volume climax candles followed by continuation, CVD trendline breaks, SAR+MACD flips on the same bar—these are institutional ignition signatures. We incorporate candle rhythm (3-5-8 sequences) and Fib confluence: the 8th candle into a move, at a 38.2–61.8% retrace or 1.272–1.618 extension, with MACD/RSI divergence and a liquidity sweep, is statistically one of the sharpest turning points.
Example: A short setup: NQ is in a downtrend (SMA8<20). Price pushes into prior high, sweeps stops, forms a bearish engulfing at 1.272 Fib, VWAP reject, SAR flips above price, MACD rolls negative, red volume surges, and CVD breaks lower. That is an advanced, institution-grade short entry.
Risk reduction starts with a simple mindset: “What if I’m wrong right here?” Every trade must have a stop placed beyond a meaningful structural point—below the last higher low for longs, above the last lower high for shorts. We never place random stops and we never trade without them.
We also insist on a minimum reward-to-risk (R:R) of 3:1. If you risk 10 points, you must reasonably see 30 points of upside. Anything less turns trading into gambling. And one absolute beginner rule: never add to a losing position. Averaging down destroys accounts; professionals only add to winners.
Example: You risk 8 points on a long, so you target at least 24 points. Price moves only 6–10 points and stalls under resistance—that is not a great trade. But if your target is 30–40 points in a clear trend, you are applying proper R:R.
Now we refine risk with MAE and microstructure. MAE—Maximum Adverse Excursion—is how far a trade moves against you before turning. You predefine an acceptable MAE and exit if price exceeds 40% of your stop distance even if structure hasn’t formally broken. This prevents you from sitting through slow, toxic trades.
Before entry, you run a quick microstructure check: spread, slippage, liquidity depth, and volatility regime. If spreads widen, books are thin, or volatility is erratic, you either reduce size or skip the trade. Sizing follows a tiered progression: 1 contract → 2 → 4 as structure, SMA8/SMA20, and VWAP align and your idea proves correct. Size is earned by confirmation, not by conviction.
Example: Long with a 10-point stop; your MAE rule is 4 points. Price pulls back 3 points then resumes—fine. If it pulls back 5–6 points quickly, you exit early. Later you see the trend fully reverse; the MAE rule just saved you a full-stop loss.
At the advanced level, risk reduction becomes a mathematical expectancy engine. Structural stops sit beyond HL/LH and ideally beyond swept levels that have already harvested liquidity. Every setup must pass a 3:1 R:R threshold and be entered from an edge—VWAP, SMA pulls, liquidity sweeps, Fib zones, or BOS retests—to compress MAE and improve variance.
We integrate ATR-based volatility sizing: in high ATR regimes, we widen stops or reduce size; in low ATR regimes, we tighten stops and become more selective. We use a layered invalidation model: SMA8 crossing against us, VWAP rejection, opposite SAR flip, opposite impulse candle, Delta divergence, and MACD histogram decay. Two strong invalidation signals are enough to flatten. Risk is actively managed, not passively endured.
Example: You’re long in an uptrend. Suddenly SMA8 rolls over, MACD histogram decays for five bars, VWAP rejects price, and Delta makes lower highs while price stalls. Even before your hard stop is hit, the layered invalidation model tells you the idea is broken and you exit.
At the basic level, escalation simply means “add a little more to a trade that’s working,” and exit means “get out when the trade clearly isn’t.” You start with your smallest size. If price moves cleanly in your favor and structure still looks good, you may add a bit once. If price moves against you and challenges your stop or structure, you do not add—you exit.
For exits, you look at simple signs: a strong candle in the opposite direction, a break of your trendline, or price breaking back below your key moving average. Once you’ve captured a comfortable multiple of your risk—like 2–3R—you can take partial profits and trail stops behind structure.
Example: You start with 1 contract, the trade moves nicely, and you add a second contract after a small pullback holds. When a big opposite candle prints at resistance and breaks SMA8, you take profits and close the trade.
Now we formalize evidence-based scaling. You can only increase size when structure confirms (HH/HL or LH/LL), SMA8/SMA20 alignment strengthens, VWAP supports your direction, and momentum indicators like MACD, SAR, and volume agree. Your tiering is structured: 1c → 2c → 5c → 10c. No jumps.
Exits are triggered by a combination of momentum exhaustion (MACD slope flattening, RSI divergence, declining volume), structural failure (break of SMA8 then SMA20, opposite impulse candle, SAR flip), and time-of-day windows where reversals often occur (10:00, 10:30, 11:15, 2:15, 3:30). R:R checkpoints guide partials: at 2R you can move stops tighter; at 3R–5R you can scale out into strength.
Example: Long NQ with 1c. After a BOS and retest hold with SMA8>20 and VWAP support, you scale to 2c. Later, micro pullbacks into SMA8 hold with MACD expanding, so you scale to 5c. When MACD histogram decays and RSI flattens near 3:30, you exit all and lock in profit.
The advanced script treats escalation and exit as a full trade lifecycle. Size increases are conditional on structural truth (BOS+retest, structural shelves), SMA spread widening, VWAP carrying the move, SAR clustering, MACD impulse, volume expansion, and favorable Delta. Moves from 1c → 2c → 5c → 10c → 100c are permitted only on high-trend, high-liquidity days with macro alignment and ATR expansion.
Exits become multi-layered: momentum exhaustion (MACD decay 3–5 bars, RSI divergence, CVD stall), structural failure (break of SMA8/20, VWAP rejection, opposite impulse), and liquidity reversal (order-book flip, imbalances forming against you). Time-based exits align with institutional rotation windows and closing flows, while R-based exits (2R, 3R, 5R, 10R) ensure asymmetric harvesting.
Example: You build a long from 1c to 10c over several confirmation steps: BOS+retest, VWAP support, macro alignment, MACD expansion, SAR clustering, strong Delta. As the move matures, MACD rolls over, CVD flattens, and a strong opposite impulse prints at HTF resistance near 3:30. You unwind the entire position into that exhaustion candle, capturing 5–10R.
At the basic level, levels are simply “important lines on the map” where price tends to react. We mark prior day high and low (PDH/PDL), overnight high and low (ONH/ONL), session open, and VWAP. These levels act like magnets and barriers. Price often pauses, reverses, or accelerates at these areas.
Liquidity is where big players trade—around these levels. We watch how price behaves when it touches them: does it quickly reject and bounce, or does it break and run? Beginners don’t need complex tools; consistent marking and observing PDH/PDL, ONH/ONL, and VWAP already raises accuracy.
Example: NQ opens below PDH but above VWAP. Price dips into VWAP, holds, and then pushes toward PDH. You know PDH is a likely reaction area, so you avoid buying directly into it and instead watch for rejection or clean breakout.
We now add volume and sweeps. High-volume nodes (HVNs) are areas where price traded heavily; they represent acceptance zones. Low-volume nodes (LVNs) are areas price passed through quickly; they act like “fast lanes” where price accelerates. Combining PDH/PDL, ONH/ONL, VWAP, SMA20, Fib zones, and session ranges with HVNs/LVNs builds a powerful map.
Sweeps occur when price runs above a known high or below a known low to trigger stops, then quickly reverses. Liquidity grabs at these levels often precede sharp moves in the opposite direction, especially when confirmed by momentum flips (e.g., MACD) and volume behavior.
Example: Price sweeps ONH, prints a long upper wick, volume spikes, and then price closes back below the level. Soon after, MACD turns down and price falls away from the zone. That’s an intermediate-level signal that the sweep likely trapped late buyers.
Advanced work integrates Level 2 (DOM) and order flow with levels. At PDH/PDL, ONH/ONL, VWAP, Fib and HTF zones, we monitor bid/ask stacking, pulling/adding orders, iceberg absorption, and spoofing. Acceptance shows up as persistent size and repeated fills without directional travel; rejection shows as orders pulling, walls forming against price, and aggressive market orders failing to push through.
Sweeps become high-probability signals when Level 2 reveals real-time traps: price spikes through a level, massive market orders hit, an iceberg absorbs everything, then the opposite side stacks and price snaps back. Liquidity phases—accumulation, expansion, distribution—are visible as patterns in DOM behavior, cumulative Delta, and imbalance flips. The best entries occur when a key level, a clean liquidity event, and supportive L2 behavior align with your overall trend bias.
Example: Price dips below PDL; DOM shows a large hidden bid refreshing at the same level, CVD rises while price stalls, and then price reclaims PDL and VWAP with MACD flipping up. That’s a textbook advanced long from a liquidity sweep with order-flow confirmation.
For beginners, S is simple: Start small, scale carefully, stop fast. Every trade begins with 1 contract, no matter how confident you feel. That starting size is a test: does the market support your idea or not? You only think about adding if the trade immediately behaves well.
Stopping is equally simple: once your stop is hit, or the structure you were trading breaks, you’re out. You don’t widen stops, you don’t “give it more room,” and you do not add to a losing position. Your job is to protect capital first, grow it second.
Example: You buy 1 contract in an uptrend. Price respects your level and starts moving your way—you hold. If price breaks your structural low or stop, you exit fully with that single contract; no averaging, no fighting.
Intermediate Start/Scale/Stop formalizes how you grow a winning position. Start at 1c. If you get BOS+retest in your favor, SMA8/SMA20 remain aligned, and VWAP supports the move with healthy volume, you can scale to 2c. As HH/HL or LH/LL continue, micro pullbacks into SMA8 hold, and regression channels confirm trend, you can scale to 5c.
Stop rules expand: any break of SMA8 with conviction, strong opposite impulse candle, or clear failure to make new HH/HL (or LL/LH for shorts) requires reduction or full exit. Time-of-day and MAE rules also apply: if MAE exceeds 40% of your stop or the market is rolling into a known low-liquidity window, you flatten or significantly reduce.
Example: Long 1c off VWAP in an uptrend. BOS+retest succeeds; you add to 2c. After a clean flag into SMA8 with strong breakout, you add to 5c. Later, a strong red impulse breaks SMA8 and price stalls near resistance; you exit the whole position.
At the advanced level, Start/Scale/Stop encodes the full trade lifecycle under live microstructure. Start with 1c and test proof-of-truth: structural HL/HH, SMA8/SMA20 slope, VWAP behavior, MAE, Delta, and Level 2. Scaling is allowed only when L2 shows stacking and iceberg support in your direction, no major opposite liquidity walls, and time-of-day plus volatility regime support expansion.
Scaling from 2c → 5c → 10c happens only when trend integrity, momentum (MACD/SAR), and order flow (CVD, imbalances) all strengthen. Scaling toward 100c is reserved for macro-aligned, high-ATR, high-trend days with clear algorithmic dominance. Stopping is mechanical: structural break, L2 reversal (absorption against you, spoofing, new walls), momentum failure, MAE violation, or adverse time window. The goal is to deploy your largest size only when truth is strongest and to remove all risk the moment truth cracks.
Example: You start long 1c on a VWAP reclaim with HH/HL. L2 shows strong bid stacking; you step to 2c on BOS+retest, then 5c as MACD expands and SAR clusters. Later, DOM prints a new ask wall at HTF resistance, MACD decays, and Delta diverges. You flatten all size before the reversal, harvesting the whole lifecycle cleanly.
Got you—let’s turn these from “very good” into “mastery-level” scripts. I’ll keep the same structure (Basic → Intermediate → Advanced for each TERELS pillar) but deepen the explanations, add nuance, and layer in more concrete examples and teaching cues.
You can treat each script as a 5–10 minute mini-lesson.
T — TREND STRUCTURE & MAs (SMA8 + SMA20)
T Script 1 – Basic (Trend = Directional Permission)
In this first lesson, your only job is to answer one question with discipline: “Which direction am I allowed to trade today?” Trend structure is your directional permission slip. If price is making higher highs and higher lows (HH/HL), buyers are in control and your default bias is long. If price is making lower highs and lower lows (LH/LL), sellers are in control and your bias is short. When the swing pattern is mixed—higher highs but also lower lows, random spikes, overlapping candles—that’s a transition environment, and your job is to not force trades into noise.
We layer two simple moving averages on top of this structure: SMA8 and SMA20. Think of SMA8 as the market’s short-term pulse—how it’s breathing right now—and SMA20 as the intraday backbone. When SMA8 is above SMA20 and both are sloping upward, the path of least resistance is up. When SMA8 is below SMA20 and both slope downward, the path of least resistance is down. If they’re flat or constantly crossing over each other, the market is telling you it has no clear directional opinion, and your win rate drops dramatically if you insist on trading anyway.
A critical beginner rule: you don’t “predict” a trend; you recognize it. You simply ask, “Are we currently behaving like an uptrend, a downtrend, or a mess?” Then you align or you stand aside. This alone eliminates a large percentage of bad trades.
Example 1: NQ opens and starts printing a series of HH/HL, with price riding above SMA8, and SMA8>20, both lines pointing up. That combination—clean higher swing structure plus aligned SMAs—grants you permission to look only for long setups. Fighting that with shorts is trying to swim upstream.
Example 2: YM is printing random overlapping candles with no clear HH/HL or LH/LL pattern, and SMA8 is chopping above and below SMA20 every few bars. That’s textbook “no permission” structure. Treat this as a red-light environment: you watch, you learn, but you do not deploy capital.
T Script 2 – Intermediate (Multi-TF + Structure Integrity)
Once you’re comfortable with basic structure and SMAs, you upgrade to a multi-timeframe lens. Here’s the hierarchy: H4 defines the macro drift—the direction of “big money.” H1 defines the session posture—who is in control today. M15/M5 define the intraday micro-phase—are we trending, rotating, or compressing inside that session? And M1 is only for precision entries once the higher timeframes are lined up. If you skip the higher timeframes and stare only at M1, you are trading the noise without understanding the melody.
We also refine structural integrity. A Break of Structure (BOS) means price takes out the last meaningful swing high (for longs) or swing low (for shorts) that had been defending the prior direction. A BOS that holds, followed by a clean retest that respects the broken level, upgrades your conviction that the trend has shifted or is continuing. A Change of Character (ChoCH) is the first sign that the existing trend might be in trouble—price breaks the most recent internal swing that had been preserving the old direction, even if the bigger structure hasn’t fully flipped yet. ChoCH is the “early warning alarm.”
Failed breakouts are equally important. When price pushes through a key level—PDH, PDL, VWAP, major swing—but then closes back inside the prior range and leaves a long wick, it often signals exhaustion or a trap. These failed breaks are especially powerful at higher-timeframe supply or demand zones; they mark the areas where large players step in against late chasers.
Example 1: H4 and H1 clearly show HH/HL—macro and session are both bullish. On M15, price breaks the last swing high (BOS) at 18,400 and then retests that level, holding above it with smaller bullish candles. That BOS+retest confirms that buyers have accepted the new higher level. Now, and only now, M5/M1 entries long are considered high probability.
Example 2: In a prior uptrend, H1 had been making HH/HL, but suddenly M15 prints a ChoCH: price breaks a key higher low, then fails to reclaim it. Shortly after, you see a failed breakout above PDH that reverses hard back below SMA20. This combination—ChoCH plus failed breakout—warns you that the environment is shifting from “buy dips” toward “prepare for shorts or stand aside.”
T Script 3 – Advanced (Trend Confirmation Stack)
At the advanced level, trend is not judged by price alone; it’s defined by a stack of confirming signals that increase your probability of being on the right side. Price swings and SMA8/SMA20 alignment are the foundation, but you add anchored VWAP, SuperTrend, SAR dominance, MACD impulse, cumulative Delta, regression channels, fair-value gaps (FVGs), and ATR behavior to refine which trends are truly tradeable.
Anchored VWAP from session open, overnight extremes, or major news sets the “institutional fair value line.” Price above an upward-sloping anchored VWAP with SMA20 rising and SMA8 riding the move is an environment where buyers have firm control; countertrend shorts tend to get steamrolled. SuperTrend in agreement—green for uptrends with SMA8>20, red for downtrends with SMA8<20—reinforces that directional bias. SAR dots staying below price for multiple candles in an uptrend act like an algorithmic “trailing stop” confirming continuation.
MACD adds a view of momentum quality. When MACD line is above its signal line, above zero, and the histogram is expanding, you have active trend ignition. If price makes new highs but MACD fails to confirm (histogram shrinks or diverges), the trend is aging. Cumulative Delta (CVD) checks whether real buyers are lifting offers or real sellers are hitting bids; higher price plus higher CVD supports trend integrity, while higher price plus lower CVD flags hidden distribution or exhaustion.
Regression channels and ATR contextualize volatility. Price respecting a rising regression channel around SMA20, with ATR expanding modestly, suggests a healthy, sustainable trend. If price drifts far from SMA20, SMA8 flattens, MACD decays over 5–8 bars, and CVD diverges, you’re likely in late-stage trend where continuation probability has dropped dramatically—even if price still looks bullish on the surface.
Example 1: NQ uptrend: H4/H1 bullish, SMA8>20, anchored VWAP from open sloping up and holding under price, SuperTrend green, SAR dots under price, MACD line above zero with expanding histogram, and CVD making higher highs. This is an “algo lock” trend—your priority is to buy pullbacks, not short tops.
Example 2: A few hours later, price makes a new marginal high, but SMA8 begins to flatten, MACD histogram shrinks for 6 bars, CVD makes a lower high, and two failed breakouts appear at an HTF resistance zone. These stacked exhaustion markers tell you that the probability of further clean trend continuation has dropped sharply; your focus shifts from trend joining to profit taking or carefully structured fades.
E — ENTRY (C.A.N.D.L.E.S)
E Script 1 – Basic (Simple Entry Logic With Edges)
Once direction is clear, entry becomes a timing problem: when do you step into that directional flow? For beginners, we keep it extremely simple—trade with the trend and enter near the edge of the move, not in the middle. You are buying dips in an uptrend and selling rallies in a downtrend, not chasing breakouts that are already extended.
To do that, we marry basic candles with basic locations. In an uptrend (SMA8>20, HH/HL), we look for rejection candles near supports like SMA8, SMA20, VWAP, or prior swing lows. Bullish hammers (long lower wick), bullish engulfing candles (green bar fully engulfs the prior red candle), and small “pause” candles after pullbacks are all acceptable signals that buyers have defended the level. In a downtrend, we invert the logic: shooting stars, bearish engulfing candles, and small consolidation candles under resistance show sellers regaining control.
Volume is your simple truth serum. You want to see lower volume on pullbacks and strengthening volume when price moves back in the trend direction. That tells you the pullback was a pause, not a full reversal.
Example 1: Trend up, SMA8>20, price pulls back from 18,450 to tag SMA8 around 18,420. A bullish hammer prints with a long lower wick that rejects below SMA8 and closes back above it. The next candle breaks the hammer’s high on slightly higher volume. That is a straightforward, beginner-friendly long entry at the edge, not in the middle of the move.
Example 2: In a downtrend with SMA8<20, price rallies into SMA20 and stalls. A shooting star forms, leaving a long upper wick into that moving average, followed by a candle that breaks its low with increased red volume. That’s a clean, basic short entry aligned with the prevailing trend.
E Script 2 – Intermediate (C.A.N.D.L.E.S Framework)
The intermediate level formalizes what you are already doing intuitively by using the C.A.N.D.L.E.S framework. Each letter is a test. You don’t need every letter every time, but the more that line up, the higher your probability.
C — Candle/Breakout: We care about where a pattern forms. Pins, engulfing bars, micro-pullbacks, and inside bars are only high-quality when they appear at structural edges—prior highs/lows, VWAP, SMA20, PDH/PDL, or Fib zones. Breakouts require a confirmation candle plus a clean retest; you avoid “one-bar” emotional breakouts with no follow-through.
A — Algo: VWAP and fair-value pulls show where algorithms defend trend. A VWAP pullback that holds and then rotates back in trend direction is a classic continuation entry. VWAP + RSI divergence is an elite reversal cue: price makes a new extreme into VWAP while RSI refuses to confirm, signaling exhaustion. Liquidity sweeps followed by MACD flips are also high-signal—stops get cleared, then the real move begins.
N — Number of Candles/Volume: We focus on how volume behaves across the sequence. Green volume expansion on breaks says institutions are engaged. Absorption wicks at lows or highs reveal hidden buying or selling. A rotation from red-dominant to green-dominant volume at support often marks the exact moment trend resumes.
D — Dots (SAR): SAR below price for longs, above for shorts, helps visualize trend continuation. A SAR flip aligned with SMA8/20 reclaim often marks a structural shift. SAR is powerful when used as confirmation, not as a standalone signal.
L — Limit (Time): The clock matters. Certain times—10:00, 10:30, 11:15, 2:15, 3:30—are rotation windows where reversals or strong continuations are more likely. Midday VWAP compression zones (around lunch) decrease win rates; you take fewer trades and demand cleaner setups.
E — Extension: You want to enter near the edges of swings, not in the middle of vertical candles. HTF expansion legs are safest when you enter near their base—on pullbacks into structure—not at the very top after multiple impulse candles.
S — Sequence (Fib): Fib retracements of 38.2–61.8% often act as reload zones in a trend; Fib extensions like 1.272–1.618 are natural profit targets or exhaustion areas. RSI divergence at these zones reinforces the probability of reversal or continuation.
Example: Long setup: Uptrend with SMA8>20. Price sweeps the prior low into a Fib 50% retrace at VWAP around 10:30, prints a bullish engulfing candle with SAR flipping below price, red volume shrinks and green volume expands on the breakout, and MACD turns upward. That’s a robust C.A.N.D.L.E.S-aligned entry.
E Script 3 – Advanced (High-Accuracy Pattern Stack)
At the advanced level, an entry is not a candle—it’s a multilayered pattern stack. You combine a high-probability candle formation, a high-value location, favorable volatility and order flow, plus rhythm and sequence. Your goal: entries with compressed MAE and explosive R:R.
High-accuracy patterns (when aligned with structure) include hammer, shooting star, bullish and bearish engulfing, inside bar breakouts, 3-bar reversals, micro-pullbacks, bull/bear flags, ABCD patterns, cup & handle, inverted head & shoulders, failed breakouts, and double or triple top/bottom failure patterns. By themselves they’re noise; at a key level with the right supporting context, they become elite signals.
You layer on algorithmic context: VWAP/AVWAP pulls, liquidity pocket refills, imbalance fills into SMA8 or SMA20, and Delta flips at VWAP. Volume confirmations—climax candles followed by orderly continuation, CVD trendline breaks, and consistent volume expansion in the direction of the breakout—separate genuine institutional moves from short-covering or random spikes.
Finally, you respect candle sequencing: micro impulses often come in 3-5 candle bursts; 8th candles in a run at key levels often mark exhaustion. When Fib zone + candle 8 + liquidity sweep + MACD/RSI divergence + Delta divergence all align, you’re hunting one of the sharpest reversal or continuation pivot points available.
Example 1 (Short): NQ is in a downtrend, SMA8<20, macro bias bearish. Price pushes just above ONH into a 1.272 Fib extension of the prior leg, forming a bearish engulfing candle with a long upper wick. Volume spikes on that candle, CVD fails to make a new high, and MACD starts to roll over. SAR flips above price, and VWAP rejects. That stack is an advanced, institutional-grade short entry with tight risk above the sweep.
Example 2 (Long): In a strong uptrend day, price pulls back into a confluence of SMA20, VWAP, Fib 50%, and a prior HVN. A micro-pullback of 3 candles forms, with shrinking red volume. The next candle breaks above the micro-pullback high, MACD histogram expands, Delta turns up, and SAR dots appear below price. That’s an advanced continuation long built from multiple aligned components.
R — RISK REDUCTION
R Script 1 – Basic (Simple, Strong Risk Habits)
Risk reduction is the habit of not blowing up. At the basic level, three rules protect you: use structural stops, insist on positive R:R, and never average into losers.
Structural stops mean you place your stop beyond a meaningful swing—below the last higher low for a long, above the last lower high for a short—not in random dollar amounts or arbitrary distances. This gives the trade room to breathe while clearly defining where your idea is invalidated. If that swing is broken, the structure you were betting on no longer exists; your job is to accept that, exit, and move on.
R:R is the math that keeps you in the game. A minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ensures that even if you’re wrong several times in a row, a few winners can more than compensate. If your stop is 10 points, you must reasonably see 30 points of potential; if not, you pass.
Last, “never add to losers” is non-negotiable. Averaging down might work a few times, but eventually you will meet a trend that never comes back and wipes out weeks or months of progress. Professionals add to trades that are working, not to trades that are screaming they’re wrong.
Example: You go long NQ with a stop 12 points below the last higher low and a target 36–40 points above entry. The trade doesn’t behave, tags your stop, and you exit. You do not widen your stop or buy more as it falls. The next day, a 3:1 winner restores your equity because your losers were capped.
R Script 2 – Intermediate (MAE, Microstructure, Tiered Sizing)
At the intermediate level, you start managing risk dynamically with MAE, microstructure filters, and tiered sizing.
MAE—the maximum adverse excursion—is your tolerance for how much heat a trade can show before it becomes statistically weak. If your full structural stop is 10 points, and your MAE rule is 40%, you agree in advance to exit if the trade goes 4+ points against you quickly, even if the structural low isn’t broken yet. This prevents you from sitting inside trades where the market is clearly not rewarding your timing. It also encourages re-entries at better locations rather than clinging to bad ones.
Microstructure checks happen before every entry, especially in futures. You quickly assess spread size, typical slippage, order book depth near your entry and likely exit, and current volatility. If spreads suddenly widen, the book thins out, or price jumps erratically, you size down or skip the trade. Your mission is to avoid environments where the mechanics of execution themselves create unnecessary risk.
Tiered sizing takes your position from 1→2→4 contracts only when your idea is working. You begin with 1 contract to test your thesis. If price behaves as expected (respecting structure, staying aligned with SMA8/SMA20, holding VWAP), you can add. Each tier is an earned promotion, not a guess. If behavior deteriorates, you never add further; you either hold or cut.
Example: Your stop is 12 points, MAE threshold 5 points. After entry, price pulls back 3 points and stabilizes—fine. If it drops 6–7 points quickly, you exit early. Later, price resets, structure and trend realign, and you re-enter at a better level. That early exit saved one full stop and kept emotional capital intact.
R Script 3 – Advanced (Expectancy Engine + Layered Invalidation)
At the advanced level, risk reduction is no longer just “not losing too much;” it becomes a designed expectancy engine—a system that forces your long-term equity curve higher through structural rules.
You still use structural stops, but with nuance: the best stops sit beyond levels where liquidity has already been swept and failed to reclaim. Once a zone has been “harvested,” the market shouldn’t revisit it in a valid trend. When it does, it’s a strong sign the trade is wrong.
Every setup is evaluated through an expectancy lens: minimum 3:1 R:R, entered near an edge (VWAP, SMA pullback, liquidity sweep, Fib zone, BOS retest) to naturally compress MAE. Combined with your performance stats (e.g., win rate, average R of winners vs losers), this ensures your math is structurally positive even before you take the trade.
Volatility-aware risk means using ATR and regime context. In high-ATR, event-driven regimes, the same dollar stop might be “too tight” in points, so you either widen stops or reduce size to keep risk in dollars constant while respecting normal fluctuation. In low-ATR grind environments, you tighten stops and become more selective about entries, since large moves are less likely and false breakouts are common.
Layered invalidation is your early-exit protocol. You track a stack: SMA8 crossing against your direction, VWAP rejection, opposite SAR flip, strong impulse candle counter-trend, Delta divergence against your position, and MACD histogram decay over several bars. You don’t need all to trigger; two strong invalidation signals are enough. This moves you from “wait until my hard stop gets hit” to “exit when the probabilities materially deteriorate.”
Example: You’re long NQ in a confirmed uptrend. Price stalls near resistance, SMA8 flattens, MACD histogram shrinks for 5 bars, and Delta starts making lower highs as price chops sideways. Then a strong red impulse candle closes below SMA8 with SAR flipping above price. You exit—even though your full downside structural stop is lower—because the layered invalidation stack has shifted the probabilities against you. That decision, repeated over hundreds of trades, dramatically improves your long-term expectancy.
E — ESCALATION & EXIT
EE Script 1 – Basic (Let Winners Breathe, Cut Losers Quickly)
Basic escalation and exit rules are about cultivating habits that favor larger wins and smaller losses. You start every trade with modest size and only consider increasing it if price immediately respects your level and moves in your favor. If a trade struggles from the start, you don’t “double down;” you keep size small or close the position.
For exits, you watch for obvious signs that the move you expected has run its course: a large candle in the opposite direction, a break of the moving average that was guiding your trade (usually SMA8), or a failure to make new highs in an uptrend / new lows in a downtrend. Once you’ve captured 2–3 times your risk, it’s completely acceptable to take partial profits and trail your stop behind a recent swing low/high.
A simple, powerful beginner rule: if the chart starts to look different from the reason you entered (trend change, broken structure), assume you’re wrong and exit. The worst thing that can happen is that you get out early and later re-enter with clarity.
Example 1: Long with a 10-point stop. Price moves 20–25 points in your favor and then prints a sharp red candle that breaks below SMA8. You lock in profit by closing the trade or at least taking partials and tightening stops.
Example 2: Short trade doesn’t behave, price hovers near your entry or grinds upward. No clean continuation, multiple small green candles against you. Instead of “giving it more room,” you accept it isn’t working and close at a small loss, preserving capital for a better rotation.
EE Script 2 – Intermediate (Evidence-Based Scaling + Momentum Exit Rules)
At the intermediate stage, escalation becomes conditional, not emotional. You scale only when the market is proving your idea correct through structure, trend, and momentum.
You start at 1c. After a BOS+retest in your favor, SMA8/SMA20 alignment strengthens, VWAP stays supportive, and MAE remains small relative to your stop, you upgrade to 2c. As the trend progresses, you see HH/HL (or LH/LL for shorts), micro pullbacks into SMA8 that resolve cleanly, volume expanding on breakouts, and a regression channel holding. These conditions justify scaling to 5c.
Momentum and timing guide exits. You monitor MACD slope and histogram, RSI slope and potential divergence, CVD behavior, and volume patterns. When MACD histogram has been shrinking for several bars, RSI flattens or diverges, and price stops breaking new structure, you prepare to exit or heavily reduce size. Time windows like 10:00, 10:30, 11:15, 2:15, and 3:30 often bring rotations; if you’re in a large position heading into one of these, you either tighten stops or take profits.
R:R guides how aggressively you protect. At 2R, you can move your stop to a structural break-even or reduce risk. At 3R–5R, you scale out into strength and let a smaller remainder ride with a wide, structure-based stop.
Example: Long NQ off a VWAP reclaim. Start with 1c. After BOS+retest, SMA8>20, MACD expanding, VWAP holding, you add to 2c. As price prints a series of HH/HL with neat pullbacks into SMA8 and strong green volume, you increase to 5c. Later, MACD histogram shrinks, RSI diverges, and you’re approaching 3:30. You peel off most of the position into that strength and either close the remainder or trail stops tightly, respecting the likely rotation.
EE Script 3 – Advanced (Full Lifecycle Trade Engineering)
At the advanced level, escalation and exit rules engineer the entire lifecycle of a trade—from the first test contract to maximal size and eventual unwind—using structure, momentum, liquidity, and time as your map.
Escalation criteria become a checklist:
Structure: HH/HL or LH/LL sequences with BOS+retest and clean shelves forming.
Trend: SMA8/SMA20 aligned and spreading, price holding above/below SMA8.
VWAP: trade rides on the “right” side of VWAP; pullbacks into VWAP behave cleanly.
Momentum: MACD histogram expanding in your direction, SAR clustering, RSI supporting the move.
Flow: CVD making higher highs/lows with price, imbalances in your favor, DOM showing walls breaking in your direction.
Under these conditions, you upgrade from 1c to 2c, 2c to 5c, then 5c to 10c. Scaling to 100c is reserved for exceptional regimes: macro alignment (H4+H1+VWAP), strong opening drive, elevated ATR, clean order flow, and absence of major opposing liquidity.
Exits use mirrored complexity. You monitor for:
Momentum exhaustion: MACD decay across several bars, RSI divergence, CVD plateau or reversal, volume climax followed by low-energy drift.
Structural failure: break of SMA8 then SMA20, failure to make new HH/HL, opposite impulse candles at key levels.
Liquidity reversal: new walls forming against your move, iceberg absorption stopping further progress, imbalance flipping to the other side.
Time & R:R: rotation windows plus having captured 5–10R or more.
You rarely wait for full stop hits on mature positions. Instead, you start to unwind as soon as the evidence indicates that the “easy part” of the move is over.
Example: An NQ long: you grow from 1c to 10c during a strong uptrend day: AVWAP and VWAP are supportive, SMA8>20, MACD expanding, CVD rising, and DOM walls get eaten. As price approaches HTF resistance near the afternoon, you notice MACD histogram weakening, RSI diverging, and a visible ask wall appearing that begins to hold. You scale out aggressively into that area and fully exit on the first solid opposite impulse candle. That trade lifecycle extracts maximum value from the trend while avoiding the late-day reversal that crushes overconfident traders.
L — LEVELS & LIQUIDITY
L Script 1 – Basic (Drawing the Map)
At the basic level, your job is to draw the map before you drive. Markets are not random; they rotate around a relatively small set of key levels where large traders transact. You mark these levels every day before you trade: prior day’s high (PDH) and low (PDL), overnight high (ONH) and low (ONL), session open, and VWAP.
PDH and PDL tell you where the last session’s extremes were; the market often revisits these to test whether they still matter. ONH/ONL show overnight extremes, which act as intraday magnets and reaction points. VWAP shows the average price at which the session has traded, weighted by volume; it’s where many institutional players benchmark execution.
Once these lines are on your chart, you stop treating every price equally. If price is far from all key levels in the middle of nowhere, you expect less reliable behavior. As price approaches a marked level, you expect a reaction: a stall, reversal, or strong breakout.
Example 1: Pre-market, you mark PDH 18,500, PDL 18,300, ONH 18,470, ONL 18,320, plus VWAP as the session begins. During RTH, price pulls back to VWAP and holds—good long candidate in a bullish environment. Later, price tests PDH; you expect either a breakout or a rejection and trade accordingly.
Example 2: Without levels, every small twitch feels important. With levels, you see that what felt like “a big drop” was simply price returning to ONL, where it had previously found support.
L Script 2 – Intermediate (Volume Profile, HVNs, LVNs, Sweeps)
Intermediate level adds volume structure and liquidity events to your map. Volume profile tells you where the market spent time and did business. High-volume nodes (HVNs) are “value areas” where price traded heavily; the market is comfortable there. Low-volume nodes (LVNs) are places price skipped through; they act like ramps where moves accelerate.
When you overlay HVNs/LVNs with PDH/PDL, ONH/ONL, VWAP, SMA zones, Fib retracements, and session ranges, you see clusters of confluence. These confluence zones are where you expect the strongest reactions.
Sweeps are deliberate liquidity events: price pushes above a prior high (e.g., PDH) or below a prior low (e.g., PDL), triggers stops, fills large resting orders, and then quickly reverses back inside the range. On the chart, sweeps show up as long wicks and failed breakouts; in terms of behavior, they often precede strong moves in the opposite direction.
Example 1: Price rallies into an LVN just above PDH and ONH, prints a long wick through that zone, and then closes back below the level. Volume spikes on the sweep, then drops as price returns inside the prior range. Later candles confirm lower highs. This pattern—sweep into confluence followed by rejection—often marks the start of a sizable rotation downward.
Example 2: In a developing uptrend, price pulls back into a major HVN around VWAP, holds, and prints a series of small candles before breaking higher again. That tells you the market is building value and absorbing selling there; it’s a strong platform for continuation entries.
L Script 3 – Advanced (Level 2 & Order-Flow-Integrated Liquidity Map)
At the advanced level, you combine your static map (levels) with a real-time radar (Level 2 and order flow) to see how liquidity actually behaves at those levels.
On the DOM and L2, you watch for:
Bid/ask stacking: large resting orders at certain prices.
Orders being pulled or added as price approaches a line.
Iceberg behavior: repeated fills at a level while displayed size doesn’t change.
Spoofing: large orders that vanish as price nears them.
At PDH/PDL, ONH/ONL, VWAP, and major Fib or HTF swing levels, this behavior tells you whether the market wants to accept or reject those prices. Acceptance = orders stick and trade; rejection = orders pull or flip.
Sweeps become clearer with L2: price spikes beyond a level, large market orders hit, an iceberg absorbs them, then the opposite side of the book (e.g., bids after a low sweep) starts stacking while price snaps back inside. That’s real-time evidence of trapped traders and large players stepping in.
You also integrate cumulative Delta and imbalance tools. When price approaches a level and CVD and imbalances support the existing trend (e.g., rising CVD and buy imbalances at support), continuation is favored. When price makes new highs but CVD falls and sell imbalances appear at resistance, distribution or reversal is likely.
Example 1: Price dips below PDL. On L2, you see a large hidden bid soaking up selling, with repeated prints at that level while the displayed size barely shrinks. Soon after, CVD turns up, price pops back above PDL, and VWAP is reclaimed with MACD turning positive. That’s a high-probability long from a liquidity sweep, confirmed by order-flow.
Example 2: Price rallies into ONH and a known LVN. A 1,000-contract ask wall appears and does not disappear; every time buyers try to lift it, new size appears. CVD stalls, then starts to fall; sell imbalances print above the level. Price turns lower and breaks SMA8. This behavior confirms ONH as distribution, not continuation, and supports exiting longs or initiating well-structured shorts.
S — START / SCALE / STOP
S Script 1 – Basic (One-Contract Probation Rule)
The basic S module is all about protection by humility: assume you might be wrong, and make the market prove that you’re right. Every trade begins with 1 contract, regardless of your conviction, the pattern, or the “feeling” you have. That initial position is a probation trade—a test.
If price quickly behaves the way you expected—respects your level, holds structure, and aligns with your trend and moving averages—you hold or consider adding later. If price hesitates, violates structure, or moves close to your stop, you accept that this idea was not rewarded and you exit at small size. The key: you do not deepen risk while the trade is under suspicion.
Stopping is equally simple: if your structural stop is hit or the reason for your entry is invalidated, you close all of that small position. You do not move stops wider, you do not add, and you do not argue with the market. This basic rule alone can cut off the fat tail of disaster trades.
Example: You go long 1 NQ contract on a clean pullback to VWAP in an uptrend. Price hesitates for a candle or two, then prints a strong green candle off VWAP with SMA8>20. That behavior is supportive, so you keep the trade. If, instead, price breaks below the prior higher low and SMA8 rolls over, you exit. You lose small, with only 1 contract, and conserve both capital and psychology.
S Script 2 – Intermediate (Structured Scaling)
Intermediate S turns scaling into a structured progression, not a random size jump. You follow a tiered path: 1c → 2c → 5c, with clear conditions to graduate between levels.
From 1c to 2c, you demand: BOS+retest in your favor, SMA8/SMA20 alignment and positive slope, VWAP supportive (price on the right side and respecting it), MAE small relative to stop, and no obvious warning signs from volume or Delta. This tells you the trade has transitioned from “idea” to “validated trend participant.”
From 2c to 5c, you require more: HH/HL or LH/LL sequence continuing, micro pullbacks into SMA8 resolving smoothly, volume expanding as price moves in your direction, regression channel containing price, and no abrupt shift in intraday volatility regime. Size grows only as the trade behaves in a professional manner.
Stop rules are scaled, too. If structure breaks (previous HL/LH fails), SMA8/20 flip against you, or a strong opposite impulse appears at a key level, you reduce or close. You also respect MAE rules: if the trade suddenly draws down deeper than your predefined MAE, you step out rather than hoping it recovers.
Example: Long 1c on a BOS+retest in an uptrend. Price holds that level, SMA8>20, VWAP below acting as support; you step to 2c. As the trend continues, HH/HL form cleanly, pullbacks into SMA8 are shallow, and volume supports each breakout; you scale to 5c. Later, a sharp red impulse candle breaks below SMA8 and volume spikes; you close or heavily reduce, respecting structural and momentum failure.
S Script 3 – Advanced (Lifecycle Management With Microstructure)
Advanced S orchestrates the entire trade lifecycle—start, build, and exit—using everything you know about structure, trend, liquidity, and time.
Start phase (1c) evaluates:
Structural integrity: Is HL/HH (or LH/LL) intact?
Trend alignment: SMA8/SMA20 and VWAP behavior.
Microstructure: MAE footprint, Delta, imbalances, and volatility.
Liquidity: L2 stacking and absence of major opposing walls.
If the trade passes these tests, you move into the Scale phase. From 1c→2c, and then 2c→5c→10c, you require strengthening evidence: BOS+retest, regression channel holding, SAR clustering, MACD and CVD confirming, imbalances favoring your direction, and minimal adverse rotation. Scaling into 100c is reserved for extraordinary conditions—macro alignment, strong opening drive, elevated ATR, and highly directional, orderly flow.
Stop phase is executed mechanically: any combination of structural break (HH/HL or LH/LL failure), SMA flip, VWAP rejection, strong counter-impulse, L2 reversal (new opposing walls, iceberg absorption against you), momentum decay (MACD/RSI/volume), MAE violation, or unfavorable time window triggers flattening or significant de-risking.
The philosophy: you start with the assumption you might be wrong, scale only as the market proves you right, and stop the moment that truth weakens. Done consistently, this keeps drawdowns shallow and lets your largest size exist only in your best trades.
Example: A long trade: you start 1c on VWAP reclaim in an uptrend, pass the early tests, and scale to 2c after BOS+retest. Volume and CVD confirm, SMA8>20, regression channel intact; you scale to 5c, then 10c as SAR clusters and MACD expands. Near HTF resistance around a known rotation time, you notice L2 showing heavy ask walls and CVD flattening; MACD begins to decay. You systematically scale out and fully flatten on the first strong opposite impulse, concluding the trade lifecycle with maximum captured profit and minimal exposure to the reversal.
If you want, next step I can:
Convert each script into slide outlines (title + 3–5 bullet points), or
Add “student drills” and chart markups you can assign after each lesson to lock in mastery.
Stage 1 of the 10-week acceleration program is Cognitive Upload & Vocabulary Lock-In (Weeks 1–2). For these first two weeks, your full-time job is to burn TERELS into your nervous system so you can “see” trend, levels, entries, and risk in under 30 seconds on any chart. Each day, you take one instrument (NQ or YM) and one past session, and do a structured top-down markup: H4 → H1 → M15 → M5 → M1. You label HH/HL vs LH/LL, BOS, ChoCH, failed breakouts, SMA8/SMA20 alignment, VWAP, PDH/PDL, ONH/ONL, and at least three clear TERELS setups you would have taken. After that markup, you write a short narrative describing the day in TERELS language (“H1 long bias, M15 BOS+retest at PDH, C.A.N.D.L.E.S long at VWAP with 3:1 R:R, scale via SAR/MACD impulse…”).
In parallel, you build a small but high-quality pattern library: each day you capture 3–5 screenshots and label them as “T, E, R, E, L, or S exemplars,” with three bullet notes explaining why. You also do 10–15 minutes of flashcard work daily: questions like “You see HH/HL on H1 but mixed M5—T verdict?” or “What minimum conditions must be present for a C.A.N.D.L.E.S entry?” The outcome of Stage 1 is simple: by the end of Week 2, you should be able to look at any random day, rapidly define trend, levels, and 1–2 high-probability entries, and explain your logic in fluent TERELS terms without hesitation. This is the intellectual upload phase—no live trading yet, just building a lightning-fast mental model.
Stage 2 is High-Intensity Markup & Simulation Training (Weeks 3–4). Here, you move from static understanding to dynamic decision-making in replay and SIM. Each weekday, you pick two historical sessions (e.g., NQ morning and YM afternoon) and run bar-by-bar replay at 2–4x speed. Before each replay, you spend 10–15 minutes doing a mini pre-session plan: mark PDH/PDL, ONH/ONL, VWAP, key Fib zones, and write 2–3 simple if–then statements (e.g., “If H1/H15 trend is aligned and price reclaims VWAP with HH/HL on M5, I look only for C.A.N.D.L.E.S longs at SMA8 pullbacks”). Then you trade the replay session in SIM as if live, with a strict limit of 3 trades per session, logging your TERELS checklist for each: T state, specific E components present, R (stop and 3:1 target), L (which level), and S (start size and hypothetical scale rules).
After each SIM replay, you immediately perform a hot review: categorize each trade as A (aligned with TERELS and environment), B (minor execution error), or C (violated your own rules). You take screenshots before entry and at exit, annotate them with what you did and what the TERELS-perfect version would have looked like, and drop them into your pattern library. Weekends in Stage 2 are “compression blocks”: you binge through 4–6 additional historical sessions, rapidly scanning for trend, levels, and 1–2 ideal entries each, without taking every trade, to simulate many “days” in a short time. By the end of Week 4, you will have seen and annotated far more high-quality setups than most retail traders see in a year, and you’ll be comfortable executing TERELS logic under replay pressure.
Stage 3 is Micro-Live Execution & Emotional Conditioning (Weeks 5–7). Now you introduce real risk, but in microscopic size—1 contract (or 1 micro) per trade, no scaling, no exceptions. Each trading day starts with a compact pre-market TERELS briefing: define H4/H1 regime and trend, mark your key levels, classify the day as “trend-likely,” “range-likely,” or “event-risk,” and write a one-sentence daily directive such as “LONG ONLY unless H1 structure breaks” or “Chop regime—only take A+ sweeps at PDH/PDL.” You also set very tight guardrails: max two losing trades or –1.5R per day, whichever comes first, and a hard rule that any tilt, FOMO, or revenge impulse triggers an immediate session stop.
During live sessions, your primary goal is not PnL but process fidelity. Before each entry, you literally walk through a 30-second TERELS micro-check out loud or in writing: “Trend: H1/M15 aligned long. Entry: C.A.N.D.L.E.S long at VWAP with engulfing + volume. Risk: Stop below HL, 3:1 target at prior high. Level: PDH confluence. Start: only 1 contract; no scale.” After each trade, you rate both technical quality (A/B/C) and emotional state (1–5). At the end of each day you review all trades, identifying where you honored or violated TERELS. Weekends in Stage 3 include at least 2 extra SIM sessions focused on replaying your worst live days and “re-trading” them correctly, rewiring the emotional and decision pathways. By the end of Week 7, you should have a meaningful sample of real trades with high process adherence and controlled emotional volatility.
Stage 4 is Institutionalization & Edge Lock-In (Weeks 8–10). Now you transition from “I can trade TERELS” to “I have a real, documented trading business.” In Weeks 8–9, you build your personal TERELS Playbook: 10–20 pages that define your top 3–5 A+ setups, with exact T, E, R, E, L, and S conditions; screenshots of ideal examples; and explicit checklists and red-flag filters. You add simple performance stats for each setup—win rate, average R per winner, average R per loser—to identify which setups deserve more focus and which need refinement or elimination. You also introduce simple regime filters: how you adjust or sideline certain setups on low ATR days, high-vol news days, or obvious chop regimes.
In parallel, you run a “pressure cooker” loop of combined replay + live: mornings in micro-live with strict rules, afternoons or evenings in fast replay of historical sessions, all logged and reviewed with the same TERELS framework. At the end of each week, you perform an institutional-style review: top 3 trades, bottom 3 trades, what broke, what held, and one concrete rule or nuance you’re adding to your playbook. Week 10 becomes a consolidation week: no new ideas, just running the playbook, tracking stats, and verifying that your behavior is stable. By the end of the 10 weeks, you won’t merely “know” TERELS—you’ll have lived through hundreds of high-quality trade scenarios, built a personal, data-backed playbook, and compressed what most traders learn in 5–10 scattered years into a focused, deliberate, 10-week transformation block.
Context: A bullish engulfing becomes predictive only when the market is already in HH/HL structure with SMA8>SMA20 and price rebounding from VWAP discount or a defended HL. Institutions need structural permission for the signal to matter. In this context, the engulf represents aggressive accumulation after a liquidity sweep or minor pullback.
Pattern Description: The engulfing candle completely consumes the prior candle’s body, demonstrating that sell-side liquidity was absorbed efficiently and that algorithms shifted into “reprice higher” mode. This is displacement following absorption—one of the cleanest microstructure resets.
Next Candle Probability:
Bull continuation: 78–85%
Pullback wick but closes green: 10–15%
Failure: 3–7%
Context: This setup appears most effectively after a pullback into VWAP discount or SMA20 support inside a broader uptrend. Institutions view a two-stage engulfing sequence as confirmation that buyers defended structural value and intend to push a new impulse leg.
Pattern Description: Each engulf resets the imbalance by wiping out prior selling pressure. The second engulf confirms continuity of absorption and signals that algorithms are accelerating displacements across micro-timeframes (M1→M5).
Next Candle Probability:
Bull continuation: 88–92%
Pullback wick: 5–8%
Failure: <3%
Context: A hammer is only predictive when it forms at a structural HL, VWAP discount, or MA support during a rising trend. The environment must show buyer defense zones where liquidity harvesting is expected.
Pattern Description: The long lower wick reflects a stop-run or liquidity sweep engineered to collect sell-side liquidity. The strong close back into the upper body shows institutional rebidding and an attempt to maintain trend integrity.
Next Candle Probability:
Bull continuation: 70–78%
Indecision/doji: 15–20%
Reversal down: 5–10%
Context: Occurs after compression phases—inside bars, SMA pinch, VWAP clustering—and signals the shift from balance to expansion. Strongest when aligned with SMA8>SMA20 and rising MACD impulse.
Pattern Description: A marubozu with no wicks reveals one-sided execution: bids stepping up through offers in a continuous manner. No wicks means no negotiation—only displacement.
Next Candle Probability:
Continuation: 82–87%
Shallow retrace wick: 10–14%
Reversal: <4%
Context: Appears during LH/LL downtrend when price pushes into premium levels—often SMA20 or VWAP premium—and shows exhaustion of the countertrend rally.
Pattern Description: The long upper wick reflects liquidity collection above minor highs, where breakout buyers are trapped. The close near the low reasserts seller dominance.
Next Candle Probability:
Bear continuation: 72–80%
Micro pullback: 10–20%
Failure: <8%
Context: Most powerful when the trend is already well-structured and the OB forms after a minor pullback or hesitation period near SMA8 or SMA20.
Pattern Description: The outside bar consumes both sides of the prior candle, decisively eliminating indecision. It signals control capture—one side has seized full dominance.
Next Candle Probability:
Continuation: 75–83%
Pause candle: 10–15%
Reversal: 6–10%
Context: A BOS must close beyond a meaningful swing high/low and ideally follow a liquidity sweep. MACD impulse or rising volume strengthens the signal.
Pattern Description: BOS represents structural displacement and is one of the cleanest institutional continuation signals. Institutions interpret BOS as permission to push the next micro-leg.
Next Candle Probability:
Continuation: 80–88%
Retest wick: 10–15%
Full reversal: <5%
Context: Appears at the ends of trends or at major liquidity sweeps. Must occur at a key pool—previous high, low, equal highs, or equal lows.
Pattern Description: Sweeps remove liquidity followed by displacement in the opposite direction. This is the earliest credible institutional reversal signal.
Next Candle Probability:
Reversal continuation: 72–78%
Retest wick: 15–20%
Failure: 8–12%
Context: Applicable in both trends and ranges. The key requirement is that price reaches rejected extremes—±1 SD—and produces a pin bar, engulfing, or OB.
Pattern Description: Institutions fade extremes back to VWAP because VWAP defines fair value. Rejection signals the refusal of the market to accept prices at that deviation.
Next Candle Probability:
Move toward VWAP: 70–76%
Minor drift before revert: 15–20%
Failure extension: 5–10%
Context: Only meaningful if the sweep occurs at logical liquidity locations—previous highs/lows, equal highs/lows, micro swing points.
Pattern Description: Stop-runs trigger forced selling (or buying) that institutions use as fuel. The rejection wick reveals that smart money absorbed the liquidity and reversed immediately.
Next Candle Probability:
Reversal continuation: 76–83%
Small consolidation: 10–18%
Break lower/higher: <6%
Context: Occurs when price attempts to exceed a key level but Level 2 shows absorption—hidden size stopping the breakout attempt.
Pattern Description: FBX traps breakout traders. The strong close back inside the range confirms the rejection and the intent to unwind trapped positions.
Next Candle Probability:
Reversal continuation: 74–82%
Retest wick: 12–18%
Failure: <8%
Context: Must align with trend structure, MA slope, and momentum confirmation. SAR alone is not predictive; SAR + structure is.
Pattern Description: A SAR flip represents volatility rotation. When it coincides with structural displacement, the flip signals a strong probability of next-candle directionality.
Next Candle Probability:
Continuation in new direction: 78–84%
Partial correction: 10–15%
Reversal: <6%
Context: Most powerful after a compression period. MACD rejects the zero line, signaling the start of a new momentum wave.
Pattern Description: Momentum waves rarely resolve in one bar. The impulse bar marks the ignition of algorithmic activity.
Next Candle Probability:
Momentum continuation: 79–86%
Reduced strength candle: 10–14%
Failure: 3–7%
Context: Appears after narrowing volatility—SMA8 and SMA20 compress. Expansion bar confirms directional release.
Pattern Description: Expansion following compression shows accumulation turning into displacement. This is a core “engine ignition” pattern in institutional analysis.
Next Candle Probability:
Continuation: 78–85%
Pause: 10–15%
Opposite direction: <5–7%
In an established uptrend with HH/HL structure and SMA8>SMA20, price retraces into VWAP discount and sweeps below an HL. The hammer that forms shows a long liquidity-harvesting wick and a close in the upper body. The SAR dot prints beneath the candle, confirming volatility realignment. Context, pattern behavior, and indicators all align.
Because the hammer represents engineered liquidity collection followed by buyer defense, the next candle carries a 70–78% probability of bullish continuation. Institutions interpret this as a structurally sanctioned re-entry point.
During a downtrend with SMA8<SMA20 and LH/LL structure, price attempts to break above a prior high. Level-2 shows heavy offers absorbing the breakout attempt, and the candle reverses into a bearish close—an FBX. Breakout traders are trapped, and institutions have used their liquidity to enter shorts at premium prices.
The next candle carries a 74–82% probability of bearish continuation because trapped longs must unwind and the trend resumes. This is an institutional-grade short trigger.
A strong upside BOS breaks a prior swing high, followed immediately by a bull marubozu with rising volume and MACD impulse. The BOS confirms displacement; the marubozu confirms acceleration. Institutions view this as an emerging impulse leg, not a completed one.
The next candle has an 82–87% probability of continuation because BOS + marubozu is one of the strongest combinations of structural confirmation and orderflow dominance.
PROMPTS
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Today we’re going to distinguish between a Bullish Doji Reversal and the Morning Doji Star, two patterns that use a doji but carry very different levels of structure and confirmation.
Let’s start with the Bullish Doji Reversal.
A bullish doji reversal occurs when a doji appears after a decline, signaling that selling pressure has stalled. The doji itself is not the reversal; it is the pause that shows equilibrium between buyers and sellers. The market is no longer one-sided. To qualify as a legitimate reversal, the doji must be followed by a bullish confirmation candle—typically a strong close above the doji’s high. This transition from indecision to strength is what creates the reversal. The key idea is that context matters. The same doji in an uptrend is meaningless, but the doji after sustained selling often marks the first sign of buyer absorption.
Now let’s compare that to the Morning Doji Star, which is a more advanced and reliable version of a doji reversal. This is a three-candle pattern. First, a long bearish candle establishes downward control. Second, the doji forms below it, creating separation or a clear shift in momentum. Third, a strong bullish candle closes deeply into the first candle’s body, confirming the reversal. Unlike the simple bullish doji reversal, the Morning Doji Star includes a full sequence: bearish momentum → indecision → bullish takeover. Because the pattern builds its own confirmation through the third candle, it tends to carry a higher probability of trend reversal than a single doji alone.
In summary:
The bullish doji reversal is a general signal requiring strong context and confirmation.
The Morning Doji Star is a structured, formal, multi-candle reversal pattern with built-in confirmation.
Both begin with indecision, but only one completes a full transition back to bullish control.
Today we’re clarifying the difference between an MA20 Reclaim and an MA20 Retest, two signals that look similar but serve very different purposes when reading trend strength.
An MA20 Reclaim happens when price is trading below the 20-period moving average and then moves back above it with a decisive close. This is a shift-in-control event. Buyers are regaining authority after a period of weakness. Think of the reclaim as the moment the market transitions from neutral or corrective behavior back into potential trend alignment. It’s a change in state, and because of that, it carries more uncertainty but often larger upside if follow-through develops.
An MA20 Retest, on the other hand, happens when price is already above the MA20 during an existing uptrend. Price pulls back toward the MA20, tests it, and holds. This is not a transition; it’s a confirmation of existing strength. Retests carry a higher win rate because they occur inside an established directional bias. They validate that the trend remains intact and offer clean continuation entries.
Here is the rule that keeps you accurate:
If price starts below MA20, it’s a reclaim. If it starts above MA20, it’s a retest.
Reclaims identify emerging strength; retests confirm sustained strength. Understanding this difference prevents premature entries and helps you align with the true trend state every time.
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Today we’re going to break down two patterns that look similar on the surface but behave very differently in live markets: the VWAP Reclaim and the Sub-VWAP Trap. Most traders confuse these, and that confusion leads to premature entries, mistimed trades, and missed continuation moves. By the end of this segment, you should be able to identify each pattern, understand why they form, and know exactly which one carries the higher probability of follow-through.
Let’s start with the VWAP Reclaim.
A VWAP Reclaim occurs when price trades below VWAP during a session and then smoothly regains it. The key word here is “smoothly.” There is no violence in this pattern. There is no panic from short sellers and no liquidity event. Price simply moves back above VWAP, closes above it, and demonstrates that buyers are comfortable taking control at fair value. This pattern is ideal during established trend days, where VWAP acts as a directional filter. When price reclaims VWAP from below and holds, you have permission for continuation entries in the direction of the trend. It’s a structural confirmation, not an emotional one.
Now let’s examine the Sub-VWAP Trap, which is very different.
This pattern begins with price dropping below VWAP, but instead of finding stability, it creates an illusion of bearish control. Shorts enter aggressively. Stops for buyers are swept. Liquidity pockets are triggered. But the breakdown cannot sustain. Price snaps back above the breakdown level and forces all of those shorts into losing positions. This is what creates the “trap.” The move back above VWAP is fast, decisive, and fueled by liquidation. Unlike the simple VWAP Reclaim, the Sub-VWAP Trap includes a failed breakdown, a liquidity sweep, and a forced unwind. That combination produces the strongest impulsive continuation moves of the session.
Here is the most important distinction I want you to take away:
Every Sub-VWAP Trap includes a VWAP Reclaim, but not every VWAP Reclaim is a trap. The trap contains a psychological and structural component — a failed breakdown and forced repositioning — that the standard reclaim does not. The reclaim is a signal; the trap is a catalyst.
As you study charts, train your eye to look for the failed breakdown. That element alone will tell you whether you’re dealing with a normal reclaim or a high-energy trap. The trap will always break down, fail, snap back above VWAP, and accelerate. The reclaim will simply glide back above VWAP and settle into a continuation rhythm.
Now let’s look at images of both so you can visually anchor the concepts.
The Rounded Micro-Base Break is a continuation pattern formed not by pullback, not by geometric consolidation, and not by indicator interaction, but by pure order-flow absorption. After a strong bullish impulse, price enters a phase of extremely tight, shallow, curved consolidation. Sellers do not push price down; instead, they are passively absorbed, resulting in flat candle bodies, micro-ranges, and volatility compression. This curvature reflects strength, not weakness. It shows buyers maintaining total control while the market reloads for the next leg.
What makes the rounded micro-base unique is that the pattern represents the absence of corrective structure. It is not a pause formed by rotation, nor by converging lines, nor by a structured retest. It is formed by gradual pressure build-up, where the market rotates internally, tightens, and then resolves with a clean, velocity-supported breakout as passive sellers disappear. This produces one of the most reliable continuation entries in strong trends.
A bull flag forms through a linear pullback inside a descending channel. Sellers temporarily guide price downward in a controlled manner.
The rounded micro-base forms through no pullback at all. Price stays flat as sellers are absorbed.
Flag: Controlled pullback.
Micro-Base: Controlled stabilization.
Pennants are geometric patterns with converging trendlines. Price compresses symmetrically.
Rounded micro-bases have no angles, no lines, and no sharp edges. The base forms a smooth curve as volatility dries up.
Pennant: Converging geometry.
Micro-Base: Curved absorption.
Micro-pullbacks show visible downward rotation, even if small.
Rounded micro-bases show no rotation: candles flatten, alternating in color with ultra-tight ranges.
Micro-Pullback: Stair-step drift.
Micro-Base: Absorption platform.
Ascending triangles have a horizontal resistance ceiling and rising lows.
Rounded micro-bases usually have no defined ceiling. Breakout occurs through a curved micro-roof generated by internal pressure, not a static resistance line.
Triangle: Hard resistance line.
Micro-Base: Pressure curvature, no ceiling.
Cup & handle is a large, multi-swing macro pattern requiring wide rotation and substantial time.
Rounded micro-bases develop quickly—5 to 12 candles—and reflect strong, uninterrupted trend health.
Cup & Handle: Macro structure.
Micro-Base: Micro continuation coil.
VWAP reclaims or MA20/MA50 tests rely on indicator interaction. The pattern is defined by price crossing or holding a benchmark.
Rounded micro-bases rely on price alone. The signal emerges from the shape of consolidation and underlying order-flow behavior, not indicator positioning.
Reclaim / Retest: Indicator-dependent.
Micro-Base: Pure price-action and microstructure.
The Rounded Micro-Base is the only continuation pattern driven by curved absorption, not pullback, geometry, indicator interaction, or staged compression.
It forms when the trend is so strong that price does not need to correct — it simply stabilizes.
This is why the Rounded Micro-Base Break consistently produces clean, low-risk, high-probability continuation moves on NQ, ES, and YM during strong trend days.
Today I want to clarify a common misunderstanding: the Rounded Micro-Base is not the same as a Cup & Handle, even though both contain curved elements. A Cup & Handle is a macro corrective pattern. It forms over a long sequence of price action, often 40 to 150 candles, and includes a deep pullback followed by a recovery phase and a secondary handle pullback. It represents a full emotional cycle in the market—decline, stabilization, accumulation, and re-acceleration.
A Rounded Micro-Base, by contrast, is a micro continuation structure. It forms quickly, typically in 5 to 12 candles, and shows no deep pullback and no handle. The curve you see is not the result of market fear or correction; it’s the product of order-flow absorption, where sellers are quietly overpowered inside a tight consolidation. The trend never loses control; it simply stabilizes before the next impulse.
Think of it this way:
A Cup & Handle rebuilds a trend after a major correction; it’s a recovery pattern.
A Rounded Micro-Base maintains a trend without ever correcting; it’s a strength pattern.
The two patterns serve very different purposes, form under different conditions, and produce different breakout behaviors. Recognizing the distinction allows you to take continuation trades with far greater timing and precision.
Wide consolidation means price is rotating inside a broad range (typically 20–80 points on NQ, 10–40 on ES).
In this environment:
SAR (Stop-and-Reverse) works extremely well
Because the market repeatedly rejects both edges
And oscillates between value high and value low
SAR works because momentum shifts cleanly:
At range highs → short
At range lows → long
With quick reversals when edges fail
Range = predictable rotations = clean SAR logic.
Even inside consolidation, the market often has a bias.
Examples of relative strength variations:
NQ stronger than YM
ES holding VWAP better than NQ
Tech leading or lagging
One index sweeping liquidity first
This determines whether:
You favor longs at the lower boundary, or
You favor shorts at the upper boundary
Same range, different bias = different edge.
This refers to the idea that each market day (trend up, trend down, balanced, range, double distribution, etc.) has sub-types.
Wide consolidation days typically break into variations such as:
Strong range with bullish bias
Strong range with bearish bias
Perfect balance
Range with midline magnet
Range with VWAP dominance
Range expanding late
Range compressing into a triangle
Range with stop-run sweeps
Range with failed breakouts
Range with one-sided absorption
Range with thin liquidity
Range with heavy algo participation
Range following a trend day
Range inside a prior balance area
Range preceding a major news event
This is where the 15 variations idea comes from.
Wide consolidation days rarely show clean strength.
Instead, you see:
Weak candles
Mixed signals
Small bullish or bearish attempts
No clear dominance
This means:
Patterns must be confirmed (no single-candle setups)
Entries require additional filters such as:
SMA/EMA support
VWAP reaction
Prior swing levels
Failed breakout confirmations
Liquidity sweeps
Nothing is strong on its own — everything requires confluence.
This describes extremely rare market conditions:
“Inverse algorithm numbers” = the market behaves opposite typical algo behavior
Happens roughly 10% of the trading days
You may only see this type once every 1–2 months
Examples:
VWAP fails repeatedly on both sides
SAR fails at midline
Breakouts consistently fail
Market ignores MA structure
Liquidity pockets vanish instantly
Order flow flips faster than usual
Every move is faded, no follow-through
These days cannot be predicted—they must be recognized.
This is absolutely correct in futures because:
Levels are extremely clear
Market respects both edges
Stop-runs occur predictably
Liquidity behavior is stable
VWAP and midline levels are magnets
Reversal setups are cleaner than trending conditions
Trend days require timing and continuation entries.
Range days require patience and boundary entries.
Range days = simpler.
In wide consolidation:
Buy low + short high = perfect structure
You can hedge with:
ES vs NQ
YM vs ES
Micro hedges (MNQ vs MES)
Long calls vs futures
Short delta vs long futures
Because direction is limited, hedging reduces risk and increases capture.
Wide ranges require:
Waiting for range extremes
Letting the market sweep liquidity
Letting algos run stops
Avoiding mid-range trades
Avoiding chasing fake breakouts
The edge is only at the edges.
Wide consolidation = big range, predictable reversals → SAR works.
Relative strength determines bias inside the range.
15 variations exist, but the boundaries remain simple.
Weak candles = confirm with MA/VWAP. No single-candle entries.
Inverse algo days are rare (~10% of days). You may only see one every 1–2 months.
Wide consolidation is easier than trend — the edges tell the whole story.
Hedging works best. Mid-range = avoid. Patience = the edge.
Here is the Classified Algorithmic Cheat Sheet I use to front-run retail order flow. These are not "default" retail settings; these are tuned for futures microstructure to detect momentum exhaustion and mean reversion.
Print this out. Tape it to your monitor. Do not deviate.
The Logic: Institutions cannot hide volume. VWAP represents the "fair value" of the session. We do not use it to guess; we use it to fade extremes.
The Settings:
Period: Session (Intraday). Resets at 18:00 EST or 09:30 EST (depending on your data feed—ensure it anchors to the TRUE session open).
Bands (Standard Deviations):
Band 1: 1.0 Deviation (The "Noise" Zone)
Band 2: 2.0 Deviations (The "Value" Edge – Take Profit Zone)
Band 3: 3.0 Deviations (The "Algo Flush" Zone – reversal imminent)
The Alpha Rule: When price hits VWAP +3 SD, you are statistically in the top 0.3% of price extension. This is where we SHORT the euphoria. When price hits VWAP, we COVER to capture the reversion.
The Logic: Standard MACD (12, 26, 9) is too slow for futures scalping. It lags. We need to see the internal velocity shift before price turns. We use a High-Frequency Scalp setting.
The Settings:
Fast Length: 3 (Ultra-sensitive to immediate price)
Slow Length: 10 (Captures the 5-min trend)
Signal Smoothing: 16 (Filters out the "whipsaw" noise)
Type: Exponential (EMA)
The Alpha Rule: Ignore the crossovers. Look at the HISTOGRAM.
Setup: Price makes a Higher High (like at 48,175), but the MACD Histogram makes a Lower High.
Diagnosis: This is Momentum Divergence. The buyers are exhausted. The "fuel" is gone, even if the car is still rolling. SHORT IMMEDIATELY.
The Logic: We need a binary "Go/No-Go" signal to manage trailing stops and confirm reversals without emotion.
The Settings:
Start/Step: 0.02 (Standard acceleration)
Maximum: 0.2 (Cap)
Crucial Adjustment: If volatility is low (lunch hour), tighten Step to 0.01. If volatility is high (The Open), keep at 0.02.
The Alpha Rule: Never short just because price is high. Short when the SAR dot flips from BELOW the candle to ABOVE the candle. That is the exact moment the trend algorithm switches from "Buy Program" to "Sell Program."
How to combine them for the trades we just discussed:
Scenario A: The Top Reversal (09:55 AM)
VWAP Check: Price is touching VWAP +2.5 Standard Deviations. (Overextended).
MACD Check: Price hits 48,175, but MACD Histogram is LOWER than it was at 09:40. (Divergence confirmed).
The Trigger: Parabolic SAR dot flips ABOVE price at 48,160.
ACTION: MAX SIZE SHORT.
Scenario B: The Value Defense (11:45 AM)
VWAP Check: Price crashes through VWAP and extends to VWAP -2.0 Standard Deviations. (Oversold).
MACD Check: Price hits new low (47,940), but MACD Histogram starts ticking GREEN (up).
The Trigger: Parabolic SAR dot flips BELOW price.
ACTION: LONG REVERSION TO VWAP.
Professor's Final Warning:
"Indicators are not magic crystals; they are speedometers. If you are driving 150mph (Price > VWAP +3SD) and you take your foot off the gas (MACD Divergence), the car will slow down. That is when we strike."
Dismissed. Go configure your charts.